Polysilicon Shortage through 2012

From a Press Release for a report 2007-2012 Deep Research Report on China Solar Grade Polysilicon Industry.

Key Points:

• Shortage will continue through 2012 as increases in demand continue to outpace production.
• Some manufacturers with processes that are not as efficient will not be competitive.
• China will be 2nd behind the US in production.
  

Solar Water Heating

Article from New Zealand on Solar Water Heating - All Power to the solar industry. The challenge to getting more installations seems to be the red tape (approvals) that are required for installations.

World's Largest PV Installation

Southern California Edison - SCE has proposed to install on commercial rooftops in San Bernardino and Riverside counties (translation large warehouses such as in Ontario) PV to generate 250 megawatts of peak power. Currently there is only 750 Megawatts of capacity in the US. This still needs regulatory approval, etc.

My question is with the shortage of PV, where are they going to get the PV to make this happen? It's a great idea, but the question of financing, cost, availability are not spelled out.

Solar Financial Engineering

Interesting article from the NY Times - Pay for the Power, Not the Panels

The article gives a taste to some innovative ideas in financing including renting (but for how long?) and use of taxes (for how long). The article lacks numbers. How much is being paid per Kilo Watt Hour from electricity from the utility, the cost being charged for solar power, and the expected payback time. The article claims the rise in Solar is due to innovative finance, but then the end quote says solar is not economical.

If the article had shown the numbers, there would not have been this basic argument.

E-Waste Segment on NPR

Heard this on NPR this morning - After the Techno Lust, There's Always E-Cycling

The segment mentioned the idea that the manufacturer responsibility based recycling was great. I disagree, where the California has many more recyclers since it's based on a fee that is pretty simple to administer. This way recyclers have an incentive to get the business and the huge growth in the number of recyclers and collectors in California are evidence of this.

Solar History

Three part series on Solar Energy and it's history. The author also wrote a book I should get.

• Photovoltaics: A Bright Idea
• Solar Cells From Space to Earth
• 
  

Solar Water Heater History & Update

Nice article about the history of the Solar Water Heater and currently which nation is using them substantially and why. Workhorse of the Solar Industry

Solar Powered Laptop Bag

Interesting idea - a solar powered laptop bag. It currently take 8 hours to charge a laptop and costs $599.

Trees Vs. Solar

The fight is continuing in the middle of Silicon Valley between two home owners, one with a solar panel and the other with redwood trees that are blocking sunshine to it. Previous post.

Solar Water Heating

21 page Report from National Renewable Energy Laboratory on Solar Water Heating from March 2007.

Key Quote:

Use of solar water heating (SWH) in the United States grew significantly in the late 1970s and early 1980s, as a result of increasing energy prices and generous tax credits. Since 1985, however, expiration of federal tax credits and decreased energy prices have virtually eliminated the U.S. market for SWH.

Key Information:

• Solar Water Heating reduces water heating by 60%
• Electric and Gas Heaters only last 10-15 years (so potential to replace them).
• SWH is a significant opportunity to reduce use of gas & electrity for heating water.

Article that I was looking for more information on that helped me find the report Solar water heating pays off in Hawaii

Solar Bubble - Will it burst in 2010?

Will the Solar Bubble burst in 2010? The argument per Lux Research Report being that enough silicon will finally be available plus competition from thin film technologies that will cause an oversupply of solar cells that outstrip demand hurting crystalline silicon PV. Lux Research does specialize in Nanotechnology (thin film) and makes their money by selling research reports (so they may favor thin film over other technologies, since these are their clients).

An interesting quote from the Wall Street Journal article that discusses the Lux paper:

“The sector will remain almost completely hostage” to subsidy regimes for the near future, Mr. Holman says. “We don’t see it becoming cost-competitive” with current technologies by 2012, he said.

The questions which I am not seeing addressed in what I have read of the report:

1. How much will demand increase for solar due to price drops worldwide? There are other markets outside the US that have significantly higher energy costs. Japan, Europe, etc. In Japan since the price of solar is near grid parity, the subsidy for solar has been removed.

2. How much is the estimated price drops for Solar? How will this impact the final install cost for a house for solar? What would be the payback period?

3. Why would Thin film increase their market share that much to 28% of the market from 17%? Thinfilm is just ramping up production and has the issue of lower efficiency requiring a higher cost of installation due to more panels needed. TJ Rogers has a few comment on thin film.

4. The requirements of US utilities to increase their use of renewable power. For example SCE is supposed to be 20% by 2010 and 33% by 2020. How does this impact the potential market for solar?

Green Tract Homes

Exciting Development! A tract home where the extra cost of the house is evened out by the savings on the monthly energy costs. And since this is being done for the entire tract of homes, it brings down the cost of making the houses green. Green for these houses seems to mean adding energy efficient appliances and solar power. Homes will also come with a dashboard to monitor electricity and water usage.

Solar Water Heating Australia Update

Government in Victoria is doing a solar water heater rebate, bringing the price in Australian dollars down to below $1000, the same cost of a gas heater.

SCE and Renewable Energy

Disclaimer - I did have an interview with SCE for a position a couple of months ago. I did not get the job (bummer), but it was a great learning experience. It's a subject I am very interested in and they had me interview with five people and I got a lot of great information. I even got a tour showing their trading floor where they buy energy.

SCE is a utility that needs to obey the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Basically they have a box that they need to stay within. There is no incentive for them in the design for reducing costs. Currently they get a guaranteed profit and need to supply the electricity needed within California per the rates that have been approved by the CPUC.

All SCE controls currently is the purchasing of electricity (often on multi-year contracts), transmission lines, and the billing of customers. Under deregulation the power plants were taken away from them. Some were sold to other companies, and others were put into a separate organization. Currently SCE has mandates on purchasing a certain amount of renewable power (20% by 2010 and 33% by 2020). California power transmission infrastructure needs help, and was the cause of some of the power problems. A challenge with windpower, is the best places for wind power usually don't have the needed transmission lines for sending the power to where it's needed. Edison is building in the Tehachapi (just North of Los Angeles) power lines that are needed for this. The challenge of building power lines is if not buried (which costs more), they impact the view. SCE has also been funding CFL's to increase the adoption of them within their area. They are also looking for ways to store energy so it can be used at night. The problem with solar and wind is it works great during the day. Current storage mechanisms such as batteries have a high cost (only lasting five years) and are not feasible for the levels Edison needs.

Food, Agriculture, and Public Health

Neat graphs that shows the relationship between companies and organic brands. There is even a movie showing the different ownership of companies at different stages of processing. A graphic of consolidation in the industry. Graphics are a great way to show complex data so it becomes information that can be understood.

Tax Credits for Solar

Currently there is a 30% Federal tax credit that will revert to 10% at the end of the year per an article in The Arizona Republic. There is a need to keep it at 30% in order to keep investments in solar going in the US since building plants takes more than one year.

Coal

Coal will be increasing in price that will increase electricity prices as the market becomes global for coal per a NY Times Article - An Export in Solid Supply. The US has 27% of the world's coal reserves.

Any increase in the price of electricity will help Solar, as currently coal is the low price supplier of electricity. The problem with coal is the pollution released and uncertainty on how much the carbon tax will be on it. And adding on pollution equipment to reduce carbon emissions increases the cost of the electricity produced. Since the cost increase is only 10%, and Solar is about 3X current coal electricity prices this does not help much.

CFL's in the News

Article on MSN Today Shining a light on hazards of fluorescent bulbs

Good article that actually explains how much mercury there is in a bulb. It did not mention the possible effects of mercury (Mad Hatter). It also mentioned that Ikea is the largest recyler of CFL's. As a retailer, it's a headache for recyling CFL's. Especially if you have breakage. The good news is they are handled that as universal waste, so you don't need manifests and such. With enough quantity, Ikea at each location may be a large quantity generator which has more regulations to follow.

Silicon Shortage - Finally Ending

Sand Pebbles: Solar Power’s Silicon Dreams in China from the Wall Street Journal.

Keypoints from Dr. Zhengrong Shi:

• New producers of silicon are finally helping put the shortage. The key word used in the quote, is "explosion".
• There used to only be 8 producers of silicon, now there is 100+
• This will have a positive impact starting in 2009.
• Suntech doubled their production to 1 gigawatt in 2008.
• Grid parity should be reached in 3-5 years even without subsidies.
  

Solar Advances using Plastic

Still in the lab, but promising to improve efficiency from 3.4%to 5.1% for plastic solar cells. This would be close to what is possible with amorphous silicon. My post Solar Market in 2009 and Good Overview from EE Times for efficiencies. The challenge is the solar cells are only part of the cost, installation and the cabinet need to be included in the total cost. And if the efficiency is only 1/4th of Bulk-silicon solar cells, then 4X the amount of cabinets and space are needed to produce the same amount of power. The advantage of plastic is now you don't need to worry about any silicon shortage. Of course since it's plastic, there is the cost of oil that is used to produce the plastic.

Solar Blinds

LA Times blog that mentions Solar Blinds.

Cleaning Up Solar

Letter from the Solar Energy Industries Association in the Washington Post in response to the recent article about dumping - Solar Plant Waste in China.

Shows the Association is very aware of the danger of the Green Industry that is seen as clean energy, being associated with toxic waste. I hope the Chinese government understands how it's in their mutual interest to make the Solar Industry, which China is will soon probably be the world's largest producer, image of clean, non-polluting energy.

Walmart's not Green

Per Wal-Mart's CEO, "“We are not green.”"

Translation - Wal-Mart is doing the efforts they are doing to improve efficiency and increase their profits. An example of an effort is reducing packaging (lowers cost since more items take up less space and less cost of materials used for packaging). This also has an environmental benefit. The same thing by increasing the energy efficiency of their stores, this reduces cost. The celling of CFL's is a business opportunity that also helps the environment overall (mercury is an issue).

Solar Water Heating

Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa are all subsidizing solar water heaters.

South Africa is having a lot installed. New Zealand seems to have some regulatory issues with red tape that is making installation a headache.

This will be interesting to watch and see how this progresses. A Chinese manufacture can make a solar water heater for under $200. Currently Israel and Cypress have the most solar water heaters per capita, with Barbados in third place.

Bubble in Solar

Akeena Solar's 4Q Loss Widens On Expansion Costs

The reason is because of the expansion of their sales and marketing (doubling) and opening six new offices. The biggest challenge in solar currently seems to be production, where if you have product you can sell it as one manufacturer has done for 2008 and 90% of their 2009 production.

Printed Solar Cells

Konarka is looking for funding since they don't have any revenue yet part of the game is to create enough interest. So there have been a series of articles recently about the printing of solar cells including an article in Popular Mechanics. The cells are 5% efficient and should be in production by 2009. The ability of printing the cells using an inkjet printer and having them on flexible plastic does open opportunities for new products.

Green Energy is making Money

Green energy is making big money from the SF Chronicle.

Key Points:

1. Alternate energy grew last year to $77.3 Billion with 40% growth.
   
2. Revenue for Windpower was $30.1 Billion and Solar photovoltaic $20.3 Billion.
3. Exon's sales in comparison were $404.5 billion in sales last year
4. Information is CleanEdge Clean Energy Trends Report 2008 that was just released. The report estimates the market for alternate energy will triple by 2017.
5. Alternate energy in the US is highly dependent on tax credits, and the US congress has not extended them yet.
   

Bio Fuels - Another source of pollution?

Discharges from bio fuel producers can have a substantial environmental impact. NY Times story Pollution Is Called a Byproduct of a ‘Clean’ Fuel. The other day there was an article about the huge amount of water needed for producing ethanol, and how this poses a possible limit. Here is a positive view of how much water Ethanol production uses.

I am not sure if the reporting of negative articles about pollution is a trend. Yesterday's article about Solar Plant Waste in China is an example. Sometimes when you have to much positive reporting, there is a backlash with an increase in negative stories on subjects. A joke I heard was if your a company, start worrying when your CEO's picture is on business week, for that's when things are about to go negative.

Green Subdivision in Silicon Valley

From the SJ Mercury News - San Jose's first "green certified" subdivision and the definition of this.

Keypoints:
1. Houses start at a Million. Of course in Silicon Valley the prices are still hard to believe. My family a couple of years ago rented a 900 square foot house in Cupertino and it was around $800K last I checked.
2. For the associated permits, it cost $1000.
3. The extra cost for being green did not add to the total cost of the house.
4. Still issues with green standards (which ones to go buy).
5. Main green features seems to be Solar and Double Pane Windows.

Good Overview from EE Times

Under the Hood: The next gold rush: solar power from EE Times.

Summary:

• Efficiency is interesting III-V Groups or multijunction concentrators have 40+ percent efficiencies (and are super expensive). Bulk-silicon solar cells are around 22 percent. Thin Film is at 18% including Cadmium Telluride and CIGS.
• Bulk-silicon is about 94 percent of the current global production.
• Global production has grown by 50 percent every year for the past five years.
• Revenue last year was $13 Billion for 2007, up from $10 Billion in 2006.
• The US is not a significant producer of solar cells.
• The US has the highest chance of coming out with a disruptive technology.
• Japan currently produces 50% of the world's solar cells.
• 
  

AP Probe Finds Drugs in Drinking Water

AP Probe Finds Drugs in Drinking Water - a bit scary the amount of junk that is in the water. The amount is small, but what is the impact of this. Same with hormones and other antibiotics that come through the food chain for people. There was one story in the NY Times about a Chicken breast that was tested in China that had so much hormones, that if a athlete had eaten it they would have tested positive and been disqualified.

Solar Plant Waste in China

Solar Energy Firms Leave Waste Behind in China by the Washington Post.

The new plants in China will produce 80,000 to 100,000 tons of polysilicon, where only 40,000 tons is produced today in the entire world. The price of polysilicon has increased from $20 per kilogram to $300 per kilogram in the past five years. Polysilicon is the raw material used for electronic chips as well as solar cells. I am not sure if the new plants in China are going to make semiconductor chip grade polysilicon or just photovoltaic grade. Article from last year on the shortage of polysilicon. Currently 88% of polysilicon production is controlled by 8 companies.

Pollution in China is an issue that I hope improves. Previous post on China's Environment.

Algae Start Up for Bio Fuels

Article from the Mercury News
Vindu's View: Algae startups chase green slime dreams
and a blog entry from the writer that has some interesting comments"
Algae blog post

Lots of investment going on. This is interesting...
De Beers Fuels, a South African company that collapsed last year in a web of deception
Some more information on De Beers. And a paper (negative) on the costs for Green Fuels. BioPact has a lot of great content on green fuels!

T.J. Rodgers Interview

Interesting to read.

Cypress' T.J. Rodgers on solar, politics, and capitalism, part 1 Clarification. If you have half the efficiency at half the price, but 70% of the cost is in non solar cell stuff (frames, panels, etc.), your final cost would actually be more. In math terms, 50% efficiency x 2 (twice the modules needed) x 2 the other costs x 70% = 140% the cost of using non thin film technology. The question is can the cost of thin film go down dramatically so it's a 1/3rd the cost?
Cypress' T.J. Rodgers on solar, politics, and capitalism, part 2

Japan did have subsidies on solar power until recently, when the price of solar in Japan became competitive with other power sources. The subsidies for Solar in Japan ended in 2005. In Japan, the power grid is required to buy solar power at retail rates. I believe it's common in the US for solar power from home owners to be sold not wholesale rates. The estimated payback time as of October 2007 in Japan was 20 years.

Some interesting solar history from 2004. Japan produced 46% of solar cells, Germany was #2, and US production had actually decreased in 2003 by 14%. Japan's subsidy was 50% of the installation, and then with the falling in price of solar went to 10%. Astropower, the largest producer of solar cells in the US went bankrupt, and was bought by GE.

catalytic photosynthesis - What is it?

I just saw it on another post in the comments of Oil Bubble About to Pop? and was curious what it is.

There are two definitions for it.

One is a method for removing C02 from smoke stacks (useful for coal plants) and making fertilizer out of it. The other is making hydrogen directly out of water. My guess is the post was referring to the hydrogen out of water, mimicking the photosynthesis process in plants.

Oil Prices - What the possibilities

Oil Bubble About to Pop? asks suggests that the price of oil is about to go down, and this may actually hurt the economy.

Analysis on Possible Impacts:

1. The economy in some parts of the US would be impacted. Oil producing area, shale, and possibly coal. After the last oil bust, the economies in those areas (Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado) diversified.
2. Demand for larger less fuel efficient vehicles would increase. This would actually help US car makers, since larger vehicles produce more profits than smaller vehicles. This would actually help the economy.
3. Alternate energy - solar, wind, etc. could be hit. Especially if the price drop is seen as long term and if the current subsidies are removed. Investments in these areas in the US would decrease.
4. In Western States where long commutes are common, lowering the price of gas would immediately help. California is full of urban sprawl, verses built up areas at this time. Which translates as people having considerable commutes to get to affordable housing.
5. In the Eastern States, during winter the price of oil used for heating is an issue.
6. In most countries, the drop of oil would be positive. This would not be true in oil exporters (which there are not that many).
7. Dropping the price of oil would probably have an impact on Ethanol, so it may impact farm states, especially if there is a drop in subsidies.
8. In Europe, since they are used to high energy costs and the Euro is strong, and oil is priced in dollars, a drop in oil prices would not have that much of an impact.

Upcoming Solar Shakeout?

3 Stocks That Can Survive the Solar Shakeout from US News & World Reports

Key Points:

• Citigroup analysts expect the industry to be 33 percent oversupplied in 2010 for Silicon (raw material used for Solar).
• Sharp is currently the largest solar producer.
• SunPower from China is expected to overtake Sharp.
• Many solar stocks are down this year.
• Survivors will be low cost leaders with scale.
  

My 2 Cents:

1. Solar costs are going to go down in 2010 because finally there is enough Silicon. The thought of the article is this will hurt Solar producers. My guess is it will help them by reducing their cost and helping lower the cost of solar panels made out of Silicon. The extra silicon may already be allocated with the huge growth rate of solar.
   
2. Scale in this industry is important for cost and when there is finally enough supply of solar panels, I see a shakeout. Currently many solar producers have orders booked far into the future (2009 and 2010). The question is when will there finally be enough supply?
   

Greed in the Name of Green

Greed In the Name Of Green from the Washington Post. Marketing is about getting people to buy your product, so if you can make some type of Green claim or change your product at minimal cost to be more eco-friendly to increase sales, it makes sense. The article shows some of the more absurd products that are out there. The challenge as consumers is how to make a sensible decision balancing being green, while managing the pocketbook.

Solar Market in 2009

Interesting article - Contradictions in the Solar Market. It's questioning the growth estimates in the market and it does not use the word bubble, but it's hinted at. Will there be an oversupply in 2008 as more solar manufacturers come online? The market is estimated will grow by 50% in 2008!

The part about the lower efficiency of thin film requiring 3X the panels to generate the same amount of power, plus installation costs make it about equal to regular silicon panels is well written.

Good quote from the article:
Traditional monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar panels with efficiencies between 15% and 22% compare to thin film amorphous silicon of 6% to 7%, which will possibility increase to 10% efficiencies in 2009 using bilayer micromorph structures. CdTe (cadmium telluride) technology, led by First Solar, is already achieving 10% efficiency. Thus, amorphous silicon is two years behind CdTe.

Applied Material - $1.9 Billion Order

Applied Material just got an order for $1.9 Billion to set up some solar factories. Wow! Applied Materials is the manufacturer for Semiconductor equipment and has moved to diversify into solar cells, which are still mostly made out of Silicon. The factories they are building could produce a gigawatt a year of cells, just under 10% of what was produced last year (12 Gigawatts). Revenue each year for Applied Material is about $2 Billion a quarter, so an order for $1.9 Billion is was about 25% of their revenue. With this additional revenue, now it's only 20%.

So what does this show? Applied Material is now a player in solar? Obviously. It also shows the rapid growth that is seen in the market. Applied Material did a substantial amount of R&D for reducing productions costs for solar. It will be interesting to see what the cost of the cells produced by the factory will be. And how the shortage of silicon will impact this. Of course when you are taking almost $ 2 Billion, you might decide to set up your own factory to make raw silicon.

Tradeshows for Solar

Conferences and Trade Shows for Solar

• Solar Power Conference 2008 - San Diego, California - October 13-16, 2008. By the Solar Electric Power Association
• Electric Power- Chicago MAY 6-8, 2008
• Solar 2008 by the American Solar Energy Society - May 3-8, 2008 San Diego

References:

• Kyocera Solar Trade Shows- Excellent list.
  
• International Tradeshows
• Solar Today Magazine
• Sharp Trade Shows - No list yet.
  

Solar and Saudi Arabia

Three different announcements lately that put together are interesting.

• AP Article - Oil giant Saudi to become solar power centre: minister. Saudi Arabia wants to become a center of Solar Technology. Nice press release.
  
• Cal Poly and the Saudis - Saudi Arabia has made a deal with Cal Poly SLO for an Engineering School (I went to Cal Poly Pomona). The Cal Poly's are excellent Engineering schools that focus on the practical.
  
• UC Berkeley seeks partnership with Saudi school - Berkeley has an excellent Engineering school.
  

Other Facts:
1. Currently there are few Engineering degrees in Saudi Arabia.
2. Saudi Arabia is seeking to diversify from just the oil industry.

Conclusions:
1. Saudi Arabia is seeking to increase the number of Engineering Graduates from it's schools.
2. High Technology is a potential area of diversification, including solar

Build Your Own Solar Water Heater

This article Solar water heater saves energy, money reminded me of my Grandfather. He built a solar water heater for his pool. He was a mechanic for PanAm and very good on making things work.

PV Companies Rankings by Size

Large Photovoltaic Solar Power Player

I am curious on who is the largest companies. The issue or challenge seems to be in measuring it. Is it by power produced, revenue, number of employees, or ?

In no particular order:

• REC. - Norwegian company. Claims to be #1
• First Solar - Helped by Walton family.
• SunTech - Claims to be #3
• Kyocera - Large Japanese Solar producer. Large factory in San Diego.
  
• Sharp - Developed first usable photovoltaic module from Silicon.
• Sanyo - Large Japanese Solar producer. Large factory in San Diego.
• BP Solar - Large player who has been around a while.
  
• Siemens Solar Industries - Bought Arco Solar in 1990. Also one of the largest solar producers.
  
• Solar World - Formerly Shell Solar
• Sun Power - TJ Rogers with Cypress Semiconductor helped the company.
• Q-Cells - Start up.
• Evergreen Solar - Start up
  

References:

• History of Photovoltaics
• Wikipedia on PV Companies

Solar - Giving more than it takes

Greener Green Energy: Today's solar cells give more than they take from Science News. The full paper this is summary of Emissions from Photovoltaic Life Cycles

There has been a criticism of solar that it takes more power to produce than it outputs. A new study says due to increased efficiency this has changed. And it may decrease again 50% within 5-7 years with improvements in manufacturing efficiency.

The four types of solar cells examined were:

• Multicrystalline silicon -Used by SunTech
• Monocrystalline silicon - Also called Single Crystal Silicon. Used by REC.
  
• Ribbon Silicon - Used by Evergreen Solar
  
• thin-film Cadmium Telluride - Used by First Solar

List of many different types of solar panels

Green Collar Jobs

Surge in solar hiring fuels training needs from the San Jose Biz Journal.

It's saying it takes about a year to train an installer for solar.

Some guesses why:

1. Solar installations combine Electrical and Structural. Usually you have one skill or the other, not both.
2. Regulations needed to work with the local power company.
3. Ability to work through the needed permits (probably varies city by city).
4. Solar is not made yet for easy installation due to local code issues and solar is still a relatively uncommon installation (which is changing). Every site is a bit custom.

So what's the solution?

1. Standardization of building codes for solar installations.
2. Focus by manufacturers on making solar easier to install.
3. Adding solar installations as part of the requirement to be a licensed electrician.
4. Making the hook up process with the local power company easier.
5. Increasing volume of solar installations (which is happening).
   

Passive Solar

SF Chronicle Article about Passive Solar. Passive Solar is using the sun to heat up surfaces that have a high thermal mass so they are acting like a capacitor, or reservoir that regulate the amount of heat. They take time to heat up and cool down. In California an example of this would be Adobe buildings which are common in older houses. The Ranch or Spanish style buildings. A book about designing a house with Amazon.com: Passive Solar House Basics: Peter Van Dresser: Books

Every year in Monrovia California on Mother's Day, they have an old house tour. My favorite houses were three Spanish Style houses. All built before 1920. One had the patio built so it was a courtyard that was very accessible from the house. House was in a C shape.