$100 Billion for a Smart Grid

Smart Grids are basically about making the distribution of power smarter through improving the transmission system. Think of driving when traffic signals are synchronized, verses not for movement of traffic. The current transmission infrastructure has challenges and is in the wrong place for carrying alternate energy. The windy areas that are prime for wind farms, don't have the transmission lines needed to send the power to the area that needs the power. My thought is a DC Power System. The key issue, as this article mentions, Can the DOE stimulate the smart grid? , is the incentives that utilities are given. If the improvement of transmissions lines are not given the right incentive they will be starved for capital. And with the US having a very decentralized power production system, it makes it even more challenging.

US becomes top wind producer, solar next year

US becomes top wind producer, solar next Year per Reuters. I find this comforting. Now if that wonderful DC grid can just get built nationwide - that will have a huge impact on Wind!

Mexico turns toward alternative energy The Associated Press

Mexico turns toward alternative energy The Associated Press

Good news overall. There is the challenge of the historical issues that can complicate any investment, especially when they can use it as an issue to push forward their own political agendas.

The LA Times headline, Slumdog' doesn't feel good in India on Indian reaction to Slum Dog Millionaire was another example of some people pushing their own political agenda. The actually opinion in India is much more nuanced. Of course when you read the article, it reads "some Indians". Which was not apparent from the headline.

Texas Adjusts Its Grid for Wind

Texas Adjusts Its Grid for Wind from the NY Times. Good article, Texas can get as much as 16% of it's power from wind, the problem is wind is erratic.

Senate Vote on Alt. Energy Credits

Wind, solar tax credits up for Senate vote from MarketWatch sounds very positive, but my gut feeling, and I hope I am wrong, is neither side will want to do anything that will seem to help the other in the last couple weeks of an Presidential Election. Republicans want more nukes, and democrats more Wind.

China's Oil Thirst is actually good?

How China’s thirst for oil can save the planet - The pioneers of green energy report a ‘gold rush’ mentality as soaring oil prices speed up the search for alternatives. From the UK Times.

Good article to read. Keypoint is lots of R&D into different types of energy. The focus in the UK is wind, not solar. Probably makes sense as wind is more economical at this time, especially in a less sunny area. The idea with solar is with a big enough production it will lower in price enough to be economical. And with solar subsidies this will help create a local industry.

The only question with solar is when will it become more cost effective. There is so much research going on right now a silver bullet may appear that dramatically lowers the cost for alternative energy. The challenge then is how long will it take to go into production? GE's windpower for example is already booked for the next two years.

Wind Power Headaches

Headwind: Asian Wind-Power Upstarts Stumble - about an Indian company, Suzlon Energy Ltd. that is having major issues breaking into the US market.

• Wind turbines cracking
• Heaters needed for controls in snow areas
• New design needed for 60 Hz (India uses 50 Hz)
• Equipment is breaking down more than contracted for
• Power produced is not what was promised

Very entrepreneurial, sell, sell, sell. And fix the problems later. And since the competition is 25% more and booked through 2010, they needed to take advantage of the window. Could they have waited 6 months to do some testing that would have show up the problems?

Peter Drucker always start small and test to find out what works, and then expand.

Wind Power

Trade winds - article from the Economist

Key Points:

• Wind Power is economical compared to Natural Gas
• Efficiency is near the theoretical amount (59.3%), avg. is 50%.
• Wind Power is rapidly growing, currently 1%, may be 15% by 2020.
  

Oil Production, Demand, Technology, and Prices

Oil Skyrockets in Biggest One-Day Gain Ever, Almost $11 because of the idea of using oil as a dollar hedge, if the dollar increases in value. The idea was supposed to be if the dollar went up, oil would go down.

Nobody is understanding the price of oil. India is subsidizing it, but recently has decided to reduce their subsidizing. So has Taiwan, China, Malaysian, and Taiwan. So do many countries in the Middle East. With the high Euro, Europe has not had their prices increase as much as the US, but they still have increased.

Many of the deposits of oil are in countries that are or have nationalized their production. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Russia, etc. The effect of shafting their foreign partners is reduced interest in investing. So you want me to invest so you can just reap the reward if their is a payoff? Hmm...

The cost of opening new fields is going up and taking longer. An interesting fact is old oil fields still have at least 50% of oil in them, the issue is the technology necessary to get more oil out is not available yet. The amount of oil that can be taken out of a field has been increasing.

So where is the price of oil going? Nobody knows. I believe technology will provide alternatives to oil that make sense, the question is how soon. Every year solar comes down in price, as does wind, and even Ethanol. The question is when will they be competitive? And if the price of oil crashes like it did after Carter left office, will development of alternate energy get stopped again? I hope not.

Green Energy is making Money

Green energy is making big money from the SF Chronicle.

Key Points:

1. Alternate energy grew last year to $77.3 Billion with 40% growth.
   
2. Revenue for Windpower was $30.1 Billion and Solar photovoltaic $20.3 Billion.
3. Exon's sales in comparison were $404.5 billion in sales last year
4. Information is CleanEdge Clean Energy Trends Report 2008 that was just released. The report estimates the market for alternate energy will triple by 2017.
5. Alternate energy in the US is highly dependent on tax credits, and the US congress has not extended them yet.
   

Texas Windpower

NY Times article - Move Over, Oil, There’s Money in Texas Wind

Key Points:

• Texas now has more windpower than California
• 3% of Texas energy is generated from the wind. 1% of US.
• Denmark generates 20% of it's power from wind.
• US Wind Capacity grew 45% last year.
• US is the 2nd largest producer of windpower, Germany is first in money invested.
• Foreign companies own 2/3rd of the wind projects under construction in Texas.