Benefits of High Oil Prices

I understand the pain of high oil prices, but there are some benefits:

1. Increased research (money) into biofuel alternatives. Not all of them corn based, some actually make sense.
2. Increased research into non-oil based plastics, ones that are organic based plastics. The projects that have already started were based on $40 a barrel, so with oil at over $150 these are very economical. And with the ability to quicker do the required bio-engineering, this is moving very quickly. Some people may be conservative on changing, but if the price difference is enough there will be a huge demand. Especially for some items that don't need to last 100 years (like bubble wrap).
3. Increased production of real Hybrids by more than just Toyota.
   
4. Decreased production of SUV's.
5. Increased research into batteries.
6. Plug in hybrids are getting closer
7. People taking jobs closer to where they live. I used to do a 90 minute commute one way, it was not good for a work/life balance and not great for the environment.
8. Increased efficiency in Brazil of Ethanol.
9. Increases in energy efficiency for everything from buildings to cars to appliances.
10. High Oil prices are speeding up the development of technology that will actually reduce the need for oil, which when this finally happens will make the world a better place (most places with lots of oil are not very nice nations).
    

Another writers reasons that high oil prices are good.

Wind Power Headaches

Headwind: Asian Wind-Power Upstarts Stumble - about an Indian company, Suzlon Energy Ltd. that is having major issues breaking into the US market.

• Wind turbines cracking
• Heaters needed for controls in snow areas
• New design needed for 60 Hz (India uses 50 Hz)
• Equipment is breaking down more than contracted for
• Power produced is not what was promised

Very entrepreneurial, sell, sell, sell. And fix the problems later. And since the competition is 25% more and booked through 2010, they needed to take advantage of the window. Could they have waited 6 months to do some testing that would have show up the problems?

Peter Drucker always start small and test to find out what works, and then expand.

Brazil's Ethanol - Green or not?

Lean, green and not mean from the Economist about Brazilian Ethanol.

Keep on going down, there is a table there and I am not sure what is going on with the formatting...

Claim Against Brazilian Ethanol	Reality
Workers are exploited cutting sugar cane.	Industry is moving to mechanical harvesting. 60%is already mechanized and by 2012 the rest should be.
There is a high death rate for harvesters	It’s 1 in 24,000 and it’s actually higher for regular farm workers 91 in 16,000). With increased usage of mechanical harvesters this should be lowered.
Energy gained does not make sense from Brazilian Ethanol	Brazilian Ethanol produces 8.2 X energy input, compared to 1.5 for US corn based ethanol.
It’s causing deforestation of the Amazon	The area mostly used for sugar cane is near San Paulo and in the North East, thousands of miles away from the forest (17M acres). Research may increase the energy gained from sugar cane with new varieties. Cattle ranching (485m Acres) causes a lot more deforestation.
Food prices are increasing due to Brazilian Ethanol	Only a small part of Brazilian agriculture land is being used for sugar cane, and it lowers the cost of energy. The high cost of energy contributes to higher food prices.

US halts new Solar Projects on Fed Land

Solar companies left in the dark - SJ Mercury News. The US government has halted new solar projects on Federal Land while they look into the environmental impact.

Strange thing to do in an energy crises.

California SB 50 CEW Redemption Rate

A recycler used to get 48 cents per pound for CEW (Covered Electronic Waste) in California. I heard it just got lowered by 5 cents to 43 cents. And in September it's going to take another 5 cent hit. Yet, when I read the regulations at CIWMB I don't see this. Strange...

Upon further research.

The 43 cents went into effect July 1, and the 38 cents on September 1. I just found a document that mentions this. The official reason is the huge growth in recycling in California. A challenge is the poundage should be going down, as CRT's (heavy) have in my opinion, almost totally been replaced by flat screens that weigh a lot less. The huge mother load of CEW of course is the home, that has a lot of weight in TV's that are being replaced by plasma's and LCD's that are not light.

The fees are also going to go up slightly starting January 1st, 2009 when you bu new electronics with screens.

Wind Power

Trade winds - article from the Economist

Key Points:

• Wind Power is economical compared to Natural Gas
• Efficiency is near the theoretical amount (59.3%), avg. is 50%.
• Wind Power is rapidly growing, currently 1%, may be 15% by 2020.
  

Energy Waste in PC's

My laptop gets so hot, that it can't rest in my lap. The amount of energy savings in computers is huge, it's some help to go from a desktop to a laptop. Not to mention the potential energy savings in Server Rooms.

This is interesting: Tech Firms Address DRAM Drain

The problem is for RAM currently, it takes power to keep the memory going. It's charge based and needs to keep on being refreshed. And with more and more memory, it's more power.

LifeStraw - Helps People and Profitable!

Water-purifying ‘straw’ in design spotlight in the WSJ. Vestergaard Frandsen : LifeStraw®
is a product that people drink through that purifies drinking water. Great for disasters and places where water may be contaminated. The WSJ mentioned it in their design highlight. Neat product that also makes a profit for the business, which is nice, do good and keep in business. They have also come out with a larger solution for families.

Green Houses

Modeling The Way To Green, One House At A Time and The New Trophy Home, Small and Ecological

There is so much potential on making houses more green. The air quality is such an overlooked opportunity for improving the quality of living (and decreasing sick days). The example of the trailers in Hurricane Katrina that gave out Formaldehyde. The challenge is the standards need some improvement to become easier to use and get rid of the areas that are not important. This will come in time.

Lead, or Leave

Op-Ed Columnist Mr. Bush, Lead or Leave by Thomas Friedman

Mr. Friedman's basic point is the current administration has had no policy, only slightly increased mileage standards under pressure, and the Republican congress has not renewed the tax credits for Solar. And what should be done is set a floor for the price of gas and use any extra to invest in alternate energy.

John McCain proposes McCain proposes $300 million to spur car battery innovation which is progress. That's progress and at least doing some thinking outside the box.

A gas tax to set a floor I see a politically impossible at this time. Even after the elections I don't see either candidate as having the guts for this. It would be nice taking out the risk of investment in alternate energy (investors get scared of the idea of the price of oil crashing as happened in the 80's, hurting the alternative energy industry significantly in the US).

At this time, I believe gas mileage requirements should be increased. It's a slam dunk because everybody politically wants to be seen as doing something. Unfortunately we seem to have a do nothing congress and executive branch (which is good and bad).

Solar Quiz

Solar Quiz - Fun to take.

My score was 6 out of 10. Some of the questions were a ones that were a bit off the wall, but still interesting and a good learning tool.

The ones I got wrong were the percentage of people who get Coal Burning Cost advantage per Watt, Green Energy, what NY is considering, and what the democrats have not put forth to help fund the solar tax break that is expiring at the end of 2008.

Sea of Trash

Sea of Trash from the NY Times. From various sources including storm drain run offs, ships, etc. a huge amount of plastic is in the oceans.

What can be done about it? It's all about money. In the developed world having bio-degradable plastics and/or banning plastic bags can help. In the rest of the world, I don't know.

Future of Passenger Railroads in the US

The initial post is great, and the comments just add a lot of depth.

My take on the commentary is don't expect a huge improvement in Passenger Train service in the US soon.

• People use Japan and Europe as examples of great train service, but the US is a lot more spread out.
• It seems that freight trains also cause the passenger lines to be delayed.
• As well as the poor service on passenger trains with prices and speeds that are just not competitive.
• There has been a huge increase in freight train traffic that has caused an increase in money spent to improve rail lines.
• For so long not enough money was spent on rail lines.

Growing up I had a train board with a lot of HO trains, and my parents and I took a lot of train trips. Unfortunately with my daughter the cost has not made sense, so we have not taken many trips. The one very memorable trip was up to Ventura, when the train started moving and she was still on the train (we had already gotten off). Luckily she got off. We did get a free ticket after complaining, but it still leaves a bad taste.

My Opinion:

• More money needs to be spent upgrading rails, including making many of them 2 lines.
• This will help the environment and traffic, since rails are more efficient over longer distances than trucks.
• The reason for the huge growth in trucks were railroads for many years did not take care of their customers offering them the level service they needed, so people went with a more flexible, slightly higher cost solution.

Future Trends on Travel

At the show I am helping out at a booth, lots of vendors with tele-conferencing packages. Using flat screens in combination with a camera. The other hot product is smart white boards. Where you can write on it, then print out the results. There were also add ons for existing white boards for doing this.

There was not a lot of environmental emphasis, one projection screen reseller offered that if you bought a new one from them, they would take the old one back at no cost to be recycled. Since the screen is mostly metal and some plastic, recycling should be easy. It's frustrating when people use the word environmental or green, and it has no substance behind it.

US Coastal Oil Drilling - Why a ban?

In 1969 in Santa Barbara there was a massive oil spill. 200,000 gallons of oil spilled. Because of this a ban on offshore drilling in Florida (swing state - major politics) and California were put into place.

Almost 40 years later, there is a lot of pressure to allow offshore drilling. Gasoline approaching $5 a gallon has caused this. Opinion polls show 65% of the US is in favor of drilling offshore. An updated article The oil spill that triggered the debate over offshore drilling and this one from the NY Times. Idea of Offshore Drilling Seems to Be Spreading

My opinion is with 40 years of technology, it should be a lot safer for oil drilling. California has allowed existing oil platforms to keep on drilling. They have done it in the gulf, even after Hurricane Katrina that tore up a lot of pipelines without a massive oil spill, why can't California manage it? Correction - 700,000 gallons were spilled. Politically I see it happening (at least the permission given) or it quietly dying in committee.

Is drilling for oil offshore the answer to the current energy crises? With a shortage of offshore rigs there won't be an immediate benefit. What would help in increases in conservation and alternative energy funding (like renewing the solar tax credits).

Las Vegas - A place of excess

I am helping out a friend in Las Vegas this week with a trade show.

Some observations:

1. In LA, everywhere you look is a Prius. It seems SUV's are becoming scarcer as people drive their second car that is more fuel efficient.
Not in Vegas. I have yet to see a Prius here.

2. Hotel Room on the strip. Usually stuff about towels and water. CFL in my desk lamp. None in the bathroom. Toilet is not a water saving model - sounds like a jet engine when it flushes, may be part of the design to get people out of the room to gamble? Sink not water saving. Show head is (and poor lighting in the shower).

3. Lots of lighting and advertising. Mobile billboards driving around. Jeeps are commonly used as taxis.

4. Lots of water being used, yet in the middle of a desert. Yes, much of it is recycled water. BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Vegas heading for 'dry future' and a recent article - Watering the West: Growth Stops When the Water Runs Out

5. So many residences since I was here last. Wow on the growth! All with their beautiful green lawns right out of England that gets lots of rainfall.

6. Still lots of people driving from LA, even with the price of gas in LA getting near $5. Gas in Las Vegas is about 30 cents cheaper than in LA.

Some related reading:

• The Equation: No water, no growth
• Cost-conscious businesses turn to low-water landscapes

Rice Yield Improvements

Scientist at Work | Norman T. Uphoff: Food Revolution That Starts With Rice

If this is true (a bit of controversy), it shows how improvement is possible beyond using better seeds, but by using a better method. A book I read a while ago (over 10), spoke of how in classical re-engineering first you get the process as efficient as possible, which usually involves a lot of simplification. Then you may find out that automation is not even needed. To automate an existing system without figuring out the best way will result in the same problems, only done faster. If I remember correctly, it was a book by Schonberger about World Class Manufacturing. May be it was 20 years ago. Product line was going kanban and I believe it was hp.

Bio Fuels Future

A closer look at the biofuels future - One of the better articles I have read, I would give it an A-. This article mentions the potential of improvements in crop yields that will eventually reduce food prices. I am not sure if this statement assumes the same demand, or it takes into account higher demand due to higher GDP in India and China that increases demand for meats, that increases demand for feed. And since Meat requires higher production costs per calorie than plants, this is an added stage of inefficiency. Another unknown is will there be a reduction in protein from fishing, if fish stocks collapse due to over fishing. Not to mention will the efficiency of bio fuel production for yeast based, algae, or wood Cellulosic improve?

And why a A-? The challenge for any consulting company is not to upset potential customers, so public articles are screened to make sure there is nothing too controversial...

Technology & Environmentalism

Frankenstein is anti-technology written by Mary Shelley at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Now changes in technology and efficiency are expected. The price of computers is one example with Moor's Law. LED's have this with haitz law. There are now expected improvements in crop yields due to bio technology. And in Bio Fuel due to bio technology. And in Energy Efficiency. And in pollution reduction devices.

Technology improvements are changing everything, and I don't believe we are going to a have a situation where technology is frozen, such as in Jerry Pournelle's Condominium.

A point made by Dennis who I met at the Drucker Symposium, is technology is not always good, but in society today it is seen as good.

I feel, the more we know, the more we realize we don't know. And the growth of knowledge is so huge and fast, with the Internet making the dissimination of knowledge easier and easier, and automation helping this tremendously.

LED Lighting for Street Lighting

The use of LED's is spreading, an article about LED's being used in Street Lighting Midwest Circuits' LED street-light technology shines. The lights last 15 years, verses the Metal Halide that lasts 2 years. Energy saved is 50%. What was not mentioned was the initial cost difference.

Toxic - new shower curtain smell

That 'new shower curtain smell' gives off toxic chemicals, study finds from the LA Times.

It's always surprising how many new products come with a smell and or coating that either needs to be aired out or washed off before usage. Air quality is often a forgotten issue. Plywood for example with formaldehyde caused the problems with the Hurricane Katrina trailer issues. It seems when you a hot and humid environment causes increase in the chemicals given off.

Recently I bought a Sealy mattress cover with silver anti-bacteria and the smell was horrible and was giving me a headache. Aired out and finally after a day was OK. It should have arrived ready for use.

Hybrid Changes

Not sure if this is a rumor or not. Toyota to Sell Two New Hybrids by 2010 and 3rd-Gen Prius Expected to Get 90+ MPG

Lithium batteries seems to be 2011 for mass use.

The competition advances, and so does Toyota.

I hope they come out with a hybrid van in the US that makes sense. Not like the joke hybrids they have for some products that have the name, minor increases in mileage, and a higher cost. Pricier Gasoline Makes Hybrids a Better Deal is a good read.

Hybrid Update

Hybrids of the right type (actually save fuel) are flying off lots. Toyota is building a new battery factory (existing one if running 100%) and Toyota to make plug-in hybrid by 2010, Honda is going to triple production, and Ford Abandons Pledge On Hybrid Production

The question is will the high prices of gas stay high? If yes, Hybrids will stay in demand. If no, remember what happened after the oil crises of the 1970's...

Another challenge is having enough production of key parts to make more parts. Toyota builds it's own batteries (Toyota quality is amazing), so in order to increase production they need to build a new plant. They even build their own IGBT's (Electronic Switch).

Change in Cars - How Long

To design a new model takes 3-5 years. So the question is when did automotive manufacturers decide they needed to become much more fuel efficient.

15 Technologies that will Energy Usage in 10 Years

Some are pie in the sky, but many are coming soon.

1. Solar increases in efficiency
2. LED Lighting
3. Bio Fuels that make sense
4. Higher efficient automobiles (hybrids, higher efficient transmissions, engines, electric, etc).
5. Higher efficient Wind Power
6. Peak power charges/usage
7. Bio Seeds (improvement in agriculture)
8. Battery Technology Improvements
9. Fuel Cells
10. Increased efficiency of appliances (power leaches that draw power even when off).
11. Green Buildings (higher efficiency buildings)
12. Increases in efficiency of oil exploration
13. Clean Coal Burning Technology (MHD).
14. Oil Shale
15. Safe Nuclear Plans (pebble reactors).

Gas Prices - The Opportunity and Risk

High Gas Prices Will Benefit Auto Industry from the WSJ.

The CEO of Auto Nation makes the point that a lot of new, exciting technology is coming because of higher fuel prices. The danger is if the price of gas crashes again, like it did in the 80's, inefficient vehicles could make a comeback. I remember in the 70's how small cars in the first energy crises were in huge demand. Then the price of oil went down and so did the demand for small cars.

It's amazing to look at over the years how much size and weight have been gained by the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord. Originally they were nice, small cars. And they grew, and grew with every new model change... It would be interesting to see a chart of the growth in weight of select Japanese model for the US market.

Water Saving Ideas

I remember the last major drought in California. It's interesting when you go to some cities in the middle of a Desert and they have lots of fountains!

The English lawns that are so beloved in So. Ca don't belong here. The use of treated water (purple pipes) is another opportunity. The problem is the plumbing for them. They could be used for watering residential lawns and flushing toilets. Unfortunately adding them after you build a house does not make sense from a cost basis (digging up streets is not cheap). New housing should be required to have them. And of course the replacing with low flow toilets, faucets, shower heads, etc. Take quick showers instead of baths, not running the water continuously. Instant water heaters are nice and save water and energy, but are pricey. The problem is you need to run water till you finally get to the stores hot water. There are recirculation pumps, but not easy to install. Improving sprinklers also helps and having smarter systems.

Water Shortage in California

Water-Starved California Slows Development NY Times article. I live in Southern California and have been through a few droughts. I visited my Grandmother in 1975 when it got down to water rationing in the SF Bay area. Santa Barbara was building a system for converting salt water to potable water. Now we have less Colorado River Water and from the Owens Valley. And more people moving in. And farming gets water at super cheap prices, while cities can't get it. So why are we growing rice in California with a water shortage?

And for some reason, Walnut Valley Water District has issues returning my call to get a high efficiency Toilet. And they still have up a flyer from May 17th on their front page, as of today, June 6th. And the site says best viewed with IE and Windows 98, or higher!

Oil Production, Demand, Technology, and Prices

Oil Skyrockets in Biggest One-Day Gain Ever, Almost $11 because of the idea of using oil as a dollar hedge, if the dollar increases in value. The idea was supposed to be if the dollar went up, oil would go down.

Nobody is understanding the price of oil. India is subsidizing it, but recently has decided to reduce their subsidizing. So has Taiwan, China, Malaysian, and Taiwan. So do many countries in the Middle East. With the high Euro, Europe has not had their prices increase as much as the US, but they still have increased.

Many of the deposits of oil are in countries that are or have nationalized their production. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Russia, etc. The effect of shafting their foreign partners is reduced interest in investing. So you want me to invest so you can just reap the reward if their is a payoff? Hmm...

The cost of opening new fields is going up and taking longer. An interesting fact is old oil fields still have at least 50% of oil in them, the issue is the technology necessary to get more oil out is not available yet. The amount of oil that can be taken out of a field has been increasing.

So where is the price of oil going? Nobody knows. I believe technology will provide alternatives to oil that make sense, the question is how soon. Every year solar comes down in price, as does wind, and even Ethanol. The question is when will they be competitive? And if the price of oil crashes like it did after Carter left office, will development of alternate energy get stopped again? I hope not.

SUV 24 MPG W/O Hybrid!

Ford begins production of the Flex that gets 24 MPG by using 6 speed transmission. If they can get that type of mileage from an SUV with that type of transmission, what's possible on smaller car? And even better mileage is promised in the future when a turbocharged direct injection is added.

Thanks Instapundit for the link!

Crops - Possible Improvements

Supply and demand. Increased demand with same supply, means higher prices usually. Which then increases supply. With the huge increase in food prices, what are ways supply may increase? Monsanto Seeks Big Increase in Crop Yields is one way. Better seeds that may double yields for cotton for example. Another is opening up new areas for farming. The challenge with that is infrastructure for areas outside of developed countries. Africa due to European influence is against bio seeds. A lot of research and improvement is also possible in staples, such as Yams, Bananas, etc. that are eaten in the third world. Rice, Wheat, and Corn have gone through yield improvements.

Kyocera Updates

Kyocera fully converted to 180 micrometer solar wafer thickness

Key Points:

1. Fully converted to 180 mm, industry average is 200-260 mm. This means they need less silicon in their cells.
2. They have suppliers lined up so they can double production by 2011.
3. In 2010, they will have in mass production a cell with 18.5 efficiency.

Myths about getting better gas mileage debunked

Myths about getting better gas mileage debunked from the LA Times. Which disagrees with this article Here are some tips on how to conserve gasoline this summer.

Per the LA Times article because of the onboard computer, many things such as a dirty fuel filter, air filter, etc. have a limited impact on mileage.

New Fuel Standards

New fuel standards advancing lighter cars, hybrids, PRO: Motorists should blame the Bush administration for its 'pump ..., and Government's the real cause of gas price hike. Some interesting letters to to the editor My American Dream: No Gas Pumps

The first article just says auto makers have until 2020 till get higher gas mileage. Second and third could have been so much better.

There was no mention of hybrid SUV's, and their low sales rate. The cost difference ($600), and how this would fall as more were produced. Some thing like each time you double production the cost goes down 10% as the operation becomes more efficient, learning curve, etc.

I am surprised that Toyota has not come out in the US with a hybrid van, they have been selling them in Japan since 2001. It's also amazing how fat vans have become, the new luxury vehicle, compared to 20 years ago.