Friday, March 7, 2008

Oil Prices - What the possibilities

Oil Bubble About to Pop? asks suggests that the price of oil is about to go down, and this may actually hurt the economy.

Analysis on Possible Impacts:

1. The economy in some parts of the US would be impacted. Oil producing area, shale, and possibly coal. After the last oil bust, the economies in those areas (Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado) diversified.
2. Demand for larger less fuel efficient vehicles would increase. This would actually help US car makers, since larger vehicles produce more profits than smaller vehicles. This would actually help the economy.
3. Alternate energy - solar, wind, etc. could be hit. Especially if the price drop is seen as long term and if the current subsidies are removed. Investments in these areas in the US would decrease.
4. In Western States where long commutes are common, lowering the price of gas would immediately help. California is full of urban sprawl, verses built up areas at this time. Which translates as people having considerable commutes to get to affordable housing.
5. In the Eastern States, during winter the price of oil used for heating is an issue.
6. In most countries, the drop of oil would be positive. This would not be true in oil exporters (which there are not that many).
7. Dropping the price of oil would probably have an impact on Ethanol, so it may impact farm states, especially if there is a drop in subsidies.
8. In Europe, since they are used to high energy costs and the Euro is strong, and oil is priced in dollars, a drop in oil prices would not have that much of an impact.

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