SUV's saved by Lower Gas Prices?

Car dealers find traction in declining gas prices - Boston Herald

I am not surprised, people's memories are so short and the prices on SUV's are amazing. If this goes on for a couple more months, I would not be surprised if this really helps out GM and Ford, and may be even change the product line up again, which lately became focused on fuel efficiency. Of course, I think all their SUV's should be Hybrids that focus on better mileage, they have the margin to add that and still make a nice profit! That would be a nice requirement, along with flex fuel.

The solar vote - Israel

Israel I would have thought would have more Solar, they do require Solar Thermal for water heating. The solar vote is an editorial about how Israel needs to develop more solar.

Under $3 Gas - More SUV's on the Road

In my area recently, I noticed there seems to be more SUV's and trucks driving around. And the line for gas at Costco is so much smaller. It makes me wonder if the the amount of miles driven is going to go up again, increasing the demand for gas, and resulting in higher gas prices.

Toyota - What's Next

So so article from the Washington Post on Toyota. Toyota Hard Hit but Equipped to Steer Clear

What the article missed is the fall in US sales and the fact that it takes 5 years for a new car model to come out. I thought the US plan for Prius was going to start production in 2009, not 2010. My mistake, and it's a new plant which explains the lead time. I am not sure why they just don't change a truck plant to make Prius, with the flexible manufacturing of Toyota it should be easier. But a headache is the Prius components, and where these are going to be manufactured from the batteries to the IGBT's to the electric motors, these I would guess are all custom parts.

Solar Chargers - Bottom up change

Solar is becoming economical first in areas that people are willing to pay a premium for it, such as military and off road uses. Another example of this - ICP and Wal-Mart See Huge Market for Solar Chargers in 2009

Low Oil Prices Take Wind Out Of Renewables

Low Oil Prices Take Wind Out Of Renewables from the SF Chronicle.

I am afraid of this.

Interesting quote:

"So if you believe that we are about to enter a rather severe global recession ... then my guess is it won't be long before oil prices are back where they were before this spiral began, back in the $20s," said Jerry Taylor, senior analyst with the Cato Institute think tank. "And political interest in energy will disappear."

Solar Thermal

1st solar-thermal in years is on - McClatchy Washington Bureau and it's in California!

Under $3 Gas

I went to Costco tonight near our house and gas was under $3. Wow!

Some questions I have:

• Are people now going to forget the habits they developed when gas was near $ a gallon?
  
• Will this kill the new Electric cars?
  
• Will this help the Big 3 that depended on high margin trucks for their profits?

The decrease in prices is relatively new, so my thought is give it a few more weeks to see how people react to it. The price of oil seems to be very volatile, and may actually fall even more. Even if OPEC Orders Cut in Oil Production. Personally, I am more open on Thanksgiving weekend to driving due to the lower price of gas.

Oil in Cuba

How Cuba's Oil Find Could Change the US Embargo from Time Magazine. If true, this could help the US. Of course we have that political albatross called the embargo. We have better relations if you can believe it with North Korea (which is a lot worse than Cuba), than Cuba. The truth is if the US eliminated the embargo it would hurt the political regime in Cuba more than the US. The embargo actually helps the communist party keep power. And oil does have a way of making the US friendlier, we are selling agriculture products to Cuba.

Solar material absorbs entire spectrum

Solar material absorbs entire spectrum - seems current solar cells only absorb part of the spectrum. So I would guess the efficiency rating is based on what part of the spectrum they can absorb, which means solar cells that can absorb more of the spectrum would have a lot more power per area of the photovoltaic material.

Positive Article on Solar

U.S. solar boom to include manufacturing, too from the Mercury News. Very positive article. The question is the credit crisis going to derail this? That can include the government tax breaks and just the ability for manufacturers to get financing to fund their expansion. The increase in the deficit and decrease in the price of oil may make the funding of alternate energy less of a priority for the both the government and private industry, unfortunately.

Natural Gas Cars

Thais Lead Drive to Natural-Gas Cars from the WSJ. The motivation is many nations have Natural Gas, but not oil, and this way they can reduce their dependence on foreign oil. I have seen a few natural gas cars in the US, I believe all have been by Honda.

Less Alternate Energy Investment?

As Prices Fall, Push for Alternatives May Ease from the Washington Post. Good article on how the lower price of oil may kill investment in electric cars and other ways to reduce the need for oil. It even mentioned the EV1. And remember, it takes 5 years for a new car to be designed and go into production...

Excellent Quote:

"If oil goes down to $60 or $70 a barrel and gasoline gets back to $2.50 a gallon, and that very possibly could happen," he said, "will that demand stay the same or will we shift back up?"

Bill Reinert, Toyota Prius designer.

Sounds like time to buy GM and Ford :-)

Cheap Oil - Venezuala

Oil-Fueled Nation Feels Pinch - from the Washington Post about Venezuela. They need $94 per barrel oil, and it's around $70 right now. Venezuala does have foreign reserves, but how long will they last?

Estimates are a year, if spending is not increased...

Solar Needed in Pakistan

Solar energy only way to meet energy needs: expert - Daily Times, Pakistan

Interesting point in the article that Pakistan has lots of Government officials that are supposed to help solar, but no solar installed. The reason is corruption and red tape.

As prices fall for Solar, I believe it will be a good solution for places that don't have a grid already in place. Electricity Grids are not cheap. I wish the article had talked more of the economics of solar, but my SWAG is it does not make sense yet in Pakistan based on the economics. Solar Water Heaters now do, since they can be built with local materials. LED Lamps also make sense, and could have a good economic impact spreading education into areas that don't have power. A problem is the government from what I can tell overall, is not focused on improving the economy, which is unfortunate.

Oil Prices Slip Below $70 a Barrel

Oil Prices Slip Below $70 a Barrel - this is going to hurt the Economies of Iran and Venezuela.

Interesting Quote:
The drop in prices has already created problems for oil producers. Iran and Venezuela both need oil prices at $95 a barrel to balance their national budgets, Russia needs $70 and Saudi Arabia needs $55 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank estimates

Of course the economies of the world are not doing that great right now, which is reducing demand for oil. Nigeria's rebels pushed too hard, so finally something is being done to increase oil production there. Iraq is coming along. Iran has the embargo which has resulted in reduced production. Mexico, decreasing due to lack of investment. Brazil, some positive changes in a couple of years. North Seas - declining.

Alternate energy, it's around $55 per barrel currently and the price is dropping every year due to better technology. I wonder if anyone has done a extrapolation on this based on trends for the last couple of years. Something like Moores Law. And of course, if Oil goes to $30 for a couple of years this would devastate the alternate energy area and kill R&D in it, again. But it seems that Saudi needs to keep the price up (question if the $55 price they need can be decreased by canceling non important projects).

The question is can the OPEC nations actually decrease oil, since they do need the money in. Is India and China have increased demand for Oil? When will coal gasification in China have an impact on their imports? When will more nuclear and coal plants have an impact on oil imports in China?

And in a couple of years, what impact will increases in fuel economy with all the hybrid and electric cars that are coming out have on oil usage? What will a new US administration do for energy conservation?

We do live in interesting times!

Tesla Delays Sedan and Layoff

Tesla Says It Will Lay Off Employees and Delay Its All-Electric Sedan Until 2011 - I did not expect this, but with this quote, it's not unexpected:
Mr. Musk is the fourth chief executive since the company was founded in 2003.

You can't keep on changing CEO's that quickly and have a clear strategy/direction.

1st vs. 2nd Generation Solar Cells

I get so frustrated with Press Releases that use jargon. Here is one about 2nd Generation Solar Cells - Sharp to deliver second-generation solar cells in U.S.

So what is a first generation solar cell and how is a second generation different? The key is the use of the world thin film I would guess.

The press release, oops I mean article, states the first generation uses 560 x 925 mm verses second generation that uses 1,000 x 1,400, which means the second generation is cheaper. I am not sure if the 9% efficiency is part of the second generation, of what. First generation is closer to 33% efficiency, but at a much higher cost.

This is the best explanation I have found so far of the difference between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation solar cells. Correction, a better one - Solar Genealogy: On Three Generations of Solar Cells.

Dell > All LED?

Dell sees the Light...Emitting Diode CNET News, CA - Sep 24, 2008

When Dell does a change, you know that the cost has dropped enough it's mainstream. Dell in the technology area has historically been a follower, where they have excelled is in the supply chain and in the sales area for B2B. The LED displays will be replacing the LCD's that are CCFl technology. The advantage is less power is needed for LED's. The difference basically between a CCFL and an LED, is one is used as a backlight for liquid crystal displays, where the LED generates the light directly and at a much lower voltage.

Energy Stocks After Correction

Sustainable Energy After the Correction - interesting article, the LED's are since it does not depend on subsidies is interesting, now to find out what is considered LED stocks. My worry on LED's is the big players like GE and Phillips will come in dominate the market, both companies already have semiconductor operations and Lights are such a commodity. The only area I would guess has potential (this is without researching) would be in the area of patents.

Three articles I need to read:

• LED Stocks Get Some Respect | Alternative Energy Stocks

• Ten Alternative Energy Speculations for 2008: LEDs and Ultracaps ...

• LED Stocks | Investing in Led Technology

Tubular Solar

And now the Economist's version! Tubular sunshine

The Economists version actually explained how the solar panel worked and why it was so valuable. It should reduce installation time by 50%! And since installation is 50% of the cost of a solar panel, this is pretty major.

Previous posts:

• Solyndra - More Details (Mercury News Article)

• New Solar design backed by Walton VC Fund NY Times Article

Analyst of Solar from Forbes

Ahead of the Bell: Analyst cuts solar estimates

Keypoints: Supply should exceed demand and credit crunch will actually help larger companies.

- My grade C+

Items that would have been in a Grade A article

1. What impact will the new tax credits have on solar demand.
2. What impact will the CA tax credits have on solar demand.
3. Will the price of the raw material silicon decrease? Are new factories for producing it coming online or has investment been delayed?
   

How Energy Saving Appliances Should Be Sold

Why is selling an energy savings appliance still in the stone age?

Why when I go to a store do I have to look at a hard copy explaining the energy savings with information that is out of date and hard to figure out?

Why not a computer touch screen. Enter in my old dryer, year and mfg, front load, gas and compare the energy savings on a new one? And with a simple online connection you would get the current energy prices in my area. Or may be enter in my zip code to get them.

If this is so simple to do, why is nobody doing this?

Washers, Refridgerators, Dryers, Water Heaters should all be sold using this! It could show you the energy savings with the different models.

Solyndra - More Details

Fremont's Solyndra goes from stealth to solar star from the Mercury News. Interesting the difference from the NY times article. My previous post New Solar design backed by Walton VC Fund that referenced this article Solyndra, with over $600M in funding, finally shows its solar hand.

Both articles are good, the NY Times one had more on the finance side, where the Merc one had more on the market and technology.

Neither did a great job of explaining how the product works.

High Energy Thursday: With oil down, is our green future at risk?

High Energy Thursday: With oil down, is our green future at risk? from the NY Times. If oil falls to far, Green Energy will take a hit. The good thing is every time going through this cycle (3 times so far), green energy gets cheaper and cheaper and closer to be competitive with oil.

Presidential Candidates and Alternative Energy

No Friend of Solar Power - The Washington Independent, D A negative for the other candidate is supporting Ethanol that just does not make economic sense.

There are some positive ideas from both candidates, I wish the best ideas from both candidates would be implemented.

New Solar design backed by Walton VC Fund

Solyndra, with over $600M in funding, finally shows its solar hand by the New York Times. Solyndra has a design that uses tubes, so they don't need to be at an angle. I wish I could see a drawing. Walton family is one of the investors.

Solar - Where are the cost estimates?

So the Congress approved Solar tax credits along with California. Germany, Japan, and Spain already have them. China is going gangbusters on getting more solar capacity.

So what is this going to do to demand and supply?

How is this going to affect pricing?

What is going on with the raw material needed for most solar cells that has gotten so costly?

Bottom line, how will all of this impact the consumer in the next 8 years? Even some SWAG would be nice to see! What impact will the slowing economy have on the solar industry?

An example here, is a $31,904 system cost the homeowner after all the rebates $11,805 with an estimated payback period of 5-7 years. Bailout bill also includes array of solar incentives

Capitalism to the Rescue?

Capitalism to the Rescue from the NY Times Magazine about VC Green investments. Good read. I did not know about the Norwegian Think battery car or Bloom Energy (fuel cell) that has required $250 Million to date in investements over the past 6 years and is still a couple of years from IPO. Ausra is interesting, low tech competitor to solar thermal. The challenge is since their are existing competitors that to do the same thing, how can they scale up the processes so they are cost efficient. When I talk about competitors, perhaps the right word is alternatives. BioFuel vs. regular oil, if the cost of the bio fuel is higher, then without goverment mandates people will usually go with the lower cost solution.

Solar Tax Credits Passes

I am surprised the solar tax credit passed with the amount of times it had been killed. By putting it in the Wall Street Bill was smart, otherwise it would have been left since congress is now on break. So 8 years of tax credits, that helps a lot for planning. Will it help prices? Probably not in the short term, since there will be an increase in demand with the lower prices to the end user and it takes time to ramp up production (which costs).

So the question is will the solar manufacturers be able to get the credit they need to take advantage of this bill?

Los Angeles Transit Plans

Measure R is a ballot initiative for Los Angeles County that would raise the sales tax by half cent. My guess is with the economy, it will fail since it needs a 2/3rds vote. Not to mention how the area I live in per this editorial is being short changed. San Gabriel Valley gets MTA crumbs by a local mayor in the San Gabriel Tribune.

Clouds loom over solar panel ramp up

Clouds loom over solar panel ramp up from the EE Times. The question or challenge will the US be renewing the tax credits? I am not sure about the statement the industry was willing to sell at a loss to keep market share for a couple of years. From what I can tell that not correct.

Solar tax credit rises again

Solar tax credit rises again as part of the Wall Street Bailout. Senate approved it, but we will see with the house that is scheduled to vote on it Friday.