Thursday, October 16, 2008

Oil Prices Slip Below $70 a Barrel

Oil Prices Slip Below $70 a Barrel - this is going to hurt the Economies of Iran and Venezuela.

Interesting Quote:
The drop in prices has already created problems for oil producers. Iran and Venezuela both need oil prices at $95 a barrel to balance their national budgets, Russia needs $70 and Saudi Arabia needs $55 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank estimates

Of course the economies of the world are not doing that great right now, which is reducing demand for oil. Nigeria's rebels pushed too hard, so finally something is being done to increase oil production there. Iraq is coming along. Iran has the embargo which has resulted in reduced production. Mexico, decreasing due to lack of investment. Brazil, some positive changes in a couple of years. North Seas - declining.

Alternate energy, it's around $55 per barrel currently and the price is dropping every year due to better technology. I wonder if anyone has done a extrapolation on this based on trends for the last couple of years. Something like Moores Law. And of course, if Oil goes to $30 for a couple of years this would devastate the alternate energy area and kill R&D in it, again. But it seems that Saudi needs to keep the price up (question if the $55 price they need can be decreased by canceling non important projects).

The question is can the OPEC nations actually decrease oil, since they do need the money in. Is India and China have increased demand for Oil? When will coal gasification in China have an impact on their imports? When will more nuclear and coal plants have an impact on oil imports in China?

And in a couple of years, what impact will increases in fuel economy with all the hybrid and electric cars that are coming out have on oil usage? What will a new US administration do for energy conservation?

We do live in interesting times!

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