Super Efficient Cars - When

Plug in Hybrids, my guess is high production within 5 years. It takes about 5 years for a design cycle of a car.

Super Charging Car Engines, 8 years. Time to refine the technology.

Electromagnet control of valves - 3 years in some cars, widespread in 8.

Just some guesses. It will be interesting to see when all these energy efficient technologies are used widespread in cars.

Relevant Posts:

• Increased Internal Combustion Efficiency
• Toyota Hybrid Van - more info.
• SUV Hybrid - reason to increase EPA Standards!

Amish & Solar

Indiana's Amish embracing wind, solar power from the Chicago Tribune. For some Amish Solar is OK with their rules. Many of them are currently using diesel generators when power is needed, so solar and wind makes more sense with the increasing cost.

Solar Vacation Houses

Powering Up - Vacation Homes That Are Off the Grid from the NY Times. It's more than just a vacation home, some people live their full time and most houses use solar. Interesting read.

Solar power Silicon rally

Solar power Silicon rally from this weeks Economist.

Key Points:

• German increased demand that caused Silicon to go from $25 to $250 per kg.
• Increase in Silicon caused solar panel price to stop dropping temporarily.
• HSBC predicts solar to increase volumes by 45% a year.
• It's hard to deal with 45% per year growth.
• Silicon Producers have been hesitant to expand production due to uncertainty over growth prospects.
  

Increased Internal Combustion Efficiency

Interesting article - New steam technology to turn car engine's waste heat to power. Sounds like common sense. And then this article that talks of cars that could get 100 MPG, The old motor roars back from the Economist.

Key Points:

• Technology can change the Engine from a diesel type to standard gasoline type increasing mileage.
• Supercharger can increase mileage and torque by 40%, reducing the size of the engine needed.
• Electromagnetic control of valves instead of a mechanical solution. My guess is a solenoid, but may be a small motor. Allows huge gains in control and ability to shut off valves when not needed.
• An engine that can switch from 2 to 4 stroke, estimated increase in efficiency by 27%.

Wow! Now what was that reason again for not increasing the US Fuel Efficiency standards?

Grid limits Renewables

The Energy Challenge: Power Grid Limits Potential of Renewable Energy from the NY Times. Nothing new, it was part of the reason that Enron could game energy in California was due to transmission line limitations. And new ones run into the problem of not in my backyard, not to mention the inter-state issues. The answer is setting up a DC Power Grid. At least Al Gore is talking letting people know this is an issue, now if it can get to the Presidential Candidates that would be nice...

Favorite Quote:

“We still have a third-world grid,” Mr. Richardson said, repeating a comment he has made several times.

Related Posts:
DC Power High Voltage Transmission Advantages

Natural Gas and Technology

Natural Gas prices goes up, technology moves forward, and gas fields that were thought to be uneconomical are developed, and past ones that still had gas in them are brought back to life. End result is a drop in natural gas prices.
Perfect example of supply and demand.

Concentrating Solar - Why so little advances?

In the past 17 years, there does not seem to have been a lot of advances in Concentrating Solar. R&D is an area I would have hoped would have been continued to be funded by the government, even with low natural gas prices in the past. But, reality of course not, that would be thinking to long term. And now without the renewal of the tax credits for solar, new installationsof Concentrating Solar in the US are threatened.

Garbage to Ethanol

IHT article about work being done to convert garbage to Ethanol. Another article I had read mentioned how solid waste could be used in growing algae that is converted to Ethanol, solving two issues at the same time. I hope this is cost effective and can be scaled up to a commercial size soon.

Failing to extend solar tax credit will hurt nation

Editorial: Failing to extend solar tax credit will hurt nation from the Mercury News. Polls say people want solar, wind, and also offshore oil drilling. Unfortunately it seems we have parties that either can only do alternate energy, or only believe in offshore oil drilling. And along the way pork barrel politics that keep the subsides for ethanol going.Frustrating, very frustrating. This lack of common sense is already hurting investment in the US, which is not the smartest thing to do with a slowing economy. But sound bites are easier!

Iraq's Impact on Oil Prices

Iraq has the most potential to quickly increase their oil production, they are already exporting as much as Iran. The question is one of politics. The Iraqi political system is full of small parties that are all jockeying for position and are having issues making major decisions, such as about oil and the use of foreign firms that have the expertise to increase oil. There is also the issue of whom can sign contracts, such as in Kurdistan as well as who controls Kirkut. Iraq has made huge improvements in stability over the last 18 months, the question is if they can get their government more efficient. Elections have been delayed, which is not helping the political stability.

First Solar & Walmart

Wal-Mart Family Cuts Holdings In First Solar from Forbes. My guess is profit taking, the shares are x10 the IPO price.

Netherland Innovation - Solar Roads

Solar-Collecting Roads Heat Buildings in The Netherlands | EcoGeek - neat idea. I have just had issues with the color black that absorbs heat being used for roads. I am thinking green would reduce the temperature in cities, but then the cost of concrete vs. asphalt. Or hopefully someday roads can be grown.

SUV Hybrid - reason to increase EPA Standards!

GM's Hybrid Silverado just makes sense with great mileage. Since it increases the mileage from 14 to around 22 mpg in City Drivings (where hybrids do best and most people do their driving), why not increase the EPA fuel efficiency requirements?

My belief is all SUV's should be hybrids tuned for fuel efficiency, just not adding more power. And the more that are made, the more the cost will come down.

Taiwan's Solar Industry

Taiwan’s solar industry could grow to US$16bn per an article in the Taipei Times. Only problem is competition from China for exports, but they are talking about a domestic industry. A complication is that is x25 growth from where they are now in 4 years. Basically doubling every year in size.

Heat Pumps - What are they

With Energy in Focus, Heat Pumps Win Fans talks about Ground Source Heat Pumps.

Key Points:

• $2.5 billion Industry
• Paypack time is 3-8 years.
• Used around the US.
• Goal is by 2030 to have 30% of the HVAC market.
• Better for large commercial properties
  

Green Software

Building Design Software is becoming more widespread with the ability to add in environmental costs. I wonder how soon this ability will be available for home design software, the $50 package or so. When it will become a standard practice of every architect to do this. Of when you buy a new home, you will get a digital file with your house on it.

Energy Policy - Russian Opportunity for a new policy!

Russian unfortunately aggression against Georgia, or reprisal gone too far (what ever you call it) gives politicians in the US some great political cover for doing the right thing on energy policy. I hope they use it.

Some Suggestions:

• Offshore drilling, use Russia's action as an excuse to back out of uncomfortable political positions.
• Renew the tax breaks for Solar and Wind. Again use Russia's action.
• Get rid of Ethanol from corn extreme subsidies, focus on non food crops.
• Remove the tariff from Brazilian Ethanol.
• Somehow fund Mexico to fix their oil fields. It can be in the form of a loan.
• Set green standards for buildings - now I am really wishing.
• Tighten the mileage requirements for automobiles even more.
• Set up an X Prize for batteries, fuel efficiency, solar efficiency, solar panel cost, LED cost and electric cars with the award of a Billion Dollars for the winner of each category. The Economic benefit of vast improvements would be huge and I would hope it would speed up the process by years. Batteries is a great example of an area that has not improved much for a long time. May be these are not 100% the right technologies to back, but do something to encourage them.
  
• Require solar water heaters on all new houses in sunny areas of the US.
• Reduce NIMBY for Windmills offshore. Europe can do it, why can't we.
• Create an Interstate DC High Voltage Grid for the entire US. Just as the Eisenhower Interstates did a huge amount for commerce, this would help a huge amount. Especially in using Wind Power.
  

Energy Efficiency - Structural Issues

Green buildings are a solution which does not even seem to be on the radar nationally. Buildings use a huge amount of energy, yet there seems to be no national standards on them. General standards that are then up to the state to adopt. Homes in the US use 20% of all energy. Think what would happen with a 30% increase in efficiency? Cars and SUV's use 40% of the oil that's used daily in the U.S. Most of the rest is used in buildings somehow.

How we can change our energy economy - South Africa
British Columbia Scores A+ For Energy Efficiency - Canada
Emission, energy reduction at heart of proposed building code - Wisconsin
Saving $10 Billion With Efficiency - US
California Public Utilities Commission sets energy-efficiency targets - Californian

Utilities and First Solar

ANALYSIS-Utilities a boon to First Solar, but is it enough? from Reuters. Interesting.

Basically utilities care about cost, and not about room so for this purpose thin film is a good technology.

Oil, Natural Gas, and Russia

I am surprised that Russia's reprisal/adventure in Georgia as not affected the price of Oil and Natural Gas from what I can see. Update Georgia conflict lifting oil price from 3-month low there seems to be some minimal impact.

Why would continued military operations by Russian in Georgia have an impact:

• Conflict costs money from gas for the airplanes to $100,000 a throw missile to even bullets. The US is spending $12 Billion a month in Iraq. Where is Russia going to find the money for this? May be be reducing capital spending on oil fields...
  
• Pipelines for Natural Gas all come from Russian to Europe. What is Europe's response to this conflict going to be? What impact will that have on Europe's future imports of natural gas from Russian. Currently they don't have a choice.
• The pipeline through Georgia for Oil to Turkey may get more damaged.
  
• Georgia may decide to do a nasty guerrilla war against Russian. This could get expensive for Russia.
• This could kick off an arms race in the area, as ex-Soviet Republics that are anti-Russian beef up their arm purchases.

The big question is how much longer is Russia going to keep this up? If the goal is just to prove how strong they are, they will need to stop soon. If it's regime change, that would damage Western relations with Russian. If it's occupying Georgia till a friendly government is put in, non-democratic, that would even more so damage relations. And if the relations get damaged, what of Iran that Russia is supplying with arms and using their security council veto.

Toyota Hybrid Van - more info.

Toyota actually has two platforms for the minivans, one that is based on the Camry that is used for the Sienna that is sold in the US, and one called the Previa which is no longer sold in the US. The Previa was sold in the US until 1997 when it was replaced by the Sienna. The idea being American vehicle buyers like a larger, more powerful vehicle which the Sienna definitely is. The sad thing is the Previa has a hybrid version, and the Sienna does not yet. Rumours are from 2008 Fall to 2010 for a Sienna hybrid. My guess is battery capacity as Toyota changes over from Nickel Hydride to Lithium is impacting the date.

iPod Battery Life - What does it mean

The new 3G iPod is amazing, but has the problem of the battery life when using the Internet in 3G mode or WiFi being around 4 hours. This is true for all the current generation of 3G phones.

My guess is the 2009 model will have a new 3G chip, that will increase battery life by 30%. Electronista | Infineon unveils HSPA chips ideal for 2009 iPhone

The key point is something like Moores Law is at work, where a semiconductors ability in a year can do the same as today, with a lot less power/increase in power efficiency. Eventually processing power is not going to be important as there is an over abundance of it, but power consumption will be the key issue.

Which would I rather have, an iPhone that is 10% faster, or one that has twice the battery life?

marriot enviro

Nuts and Bolts of Solar

Classes on nuts, volts of solar trade filling up - I find this incredibly hopeful.

When it gets down to the level of the tradesman seeing a need for the knowledge to install solar, I see the future as bright.

Falling Oil Prices Impact

Oil prices in my area are a few cents above $4. I am wondering what is the tipping point on people's behavior for driving. On the way up, it seemed to be $4.50, on the way down, will it be below $4? And how long will the lower prices last? And what impact will this have on driving habits in the US?

Near term possible changes to increase supply/decrease usage:

• China after the Olympic is rumored to remove oil subsidies, that should reduce usage.
• Warmer winter resulting in less fuel oil usage.
• US driving less.
• US willing to open national reserve (does wonders on the futures market).
• New pipelines for natural gas being laid.
• India/Pakistan/Indonesia find out they can no longer afford huge fuel subsidies and cut back.
• Iraq continues trend of less violence and increased output
• Continuing decrease in miles driven in US.
  

Near Term Possible Decreases to Supply

• Nigerian rebels
• Mexico continues lack of investment in oil
• Continued subsidies in China/Pakistan/India/Indonesia
• Continued inefficient ethanol subsidies in US and Europe
• Continued tariffs against Brazilian Ethanol in US
• Saudi Arabia can't increase production (nobody knows who is talking).
• Iran attacked by US or Israel (very possible, question is when. My guess after the election in Israel and the US, but before the US inauguration).
  
• Sanctions decrease Iranian oil
• Russian oil does not get investment needed to continue oil production, but is managed with short term focus (seems to be happening).

Longer Term:

• Technology increases ability to get oil from old fields
• Oil Shale
• Economical Bio Fuels that don't use corn.
• Oil from Algae
• Hybrids
• Electric Vehicles and plug ins
  
• Offshore drilling in the US
• Increased vehicle mileage requirements in the US
• WMD attack using a gas tanker with LNG
• Solar Technology
• Smart Grid
• Interstate DC Power Grid
• Solar Water Heaters in widespread usage
• Green Buildings (increased efficiency due to better design)
• Better battery technology
• Increased oil usage by India and China
  

Longer term I see a huge amount of hope. Of course if the price of oil crashes, a lot of this new technology, just like 30 years ago will be put back in the closet. My guess is it would take a crash down to $40 per barrel to kill a lot of investment in new technology, $50 per barrel seems to be the break even point currently on much of the new technology.

Solar Water Heating - 20 Years Later

Pioneering solar neighborhood struggles to keep up with times - many home owners stopped taking care of their solar water heaters, especially when the storage tank made out of fiberglass cracked. My guess is low natural gas prices contributed. And now many of them probably wished the solar water heaters were working with the higher price of natural gas. For the tankless water heater mentioned, they are not cheap...

Another Outlook...

I just finished John Ringo's Book, the Last Centurion. Wow! It definitely has an opinion on global warming (and no, I do not want to get into a debate with him on it) among other things.

It's a good read and I enjoyed the book. I hope the future does not turn out this way, I do like living in California!

LED Street Lights?

New Bills: From Saving Energy to Preventing Choking
Gotham Gazette, NY - 2 hours ago
... Lappin of Manhattan introduced legislation (Intro 806) requiring the city replace its current street lamps with light-emitting diode street lamps

or...

LED lights fail city scrutiny
The Grand Rapids Press - MLive.com, MI - Aug 1, 2008
The lamps, which use light-emitting diodes (LEDs) instead of high-pressure sodium lamps, do not throw enough light onto the sidewalks that line his ...

Bicycles in LA?

Pedal power challenges car culture as cyclists seize Los Angeles freeways - from the UK Times.

Since I live in the LA area, I do have some opinions:

1. This area is incredibly hostile to cyclists. In design of streets to storm drain covers to basic maintenance in LA. The lack of bike lanes is a big issue.
   
2. People drive fast here when possible
3. Being on the sidewalk is better for the bicyclists due to safety issues, but then affects people who walk - there are a few. When I was in High School a great song was nobody walks in LA.
4. I would be surprised on bicyclists on the freeways in LA. It's against the law and the Highway Patrol is the type that would stake out an area to eliminate this issue.
5. Maintenance in the City of Los Angeles for roads - horrible. May be use a Mountain Bike?
   

$4.50 per Gallon the Tipping Point

Or is it only $4? I just saw gas near my house for $4.03. I am curious if SUV's will all of a sudden come back with the lower price. I have noticed the lines at Coscto for gas are smalle with the decrease.