10% of US Power from Geothermal?

How underground ‘hot rocks’ could power America’s future from the Christian Science Monitor.

Of course this is a bit worrisome...

Dr. Blackwell says.

The potential for EGS is “vast,” he says. “I think that the MIT report is conservative if we really start to develop it.”

The big unknown is going to be cost. “And until we actually have a number of [EGS] systems operating,” he says, “we don’t know what the cost will be.”

Plug In Hybrids

Squeezing More Miles Out of That Hybrid from the WSJ. Toyota's culture for the most part is very risk adverse, so I understand how they are worried about the liability issue for plug in conversions. Be nice if they did not have to worry, but they are smart to do so.

Heat Exchanger for Houses

This NY Times article mentions a key of this house is a Heat Exchanger. I am curious on what is so special about this, since when I google the term Heat Exchanger I come across a lot. The Energy Challenge: No Furnaces but Heat Aplenty in ‘Passive Houses’. This has more details on Passive house - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The key seems to be Heat Recovery Ventilation.

Neat stuff which in time will become more and more common. The use of the modeling software is changing how one designs buildings! As the software becomes more environmentally aware (I would use the word advanced, but I hesitate), this will help reduce energy even more.

Gas Tax - Win, Win, Win

Friedman: Win, Win, Win from the NY TImes.

Good article about why a Gas Tax would help in the long term for making the US energy independent. Short term the price of gas is a nice economic benefit, but the US needs to reduce it's importation of energy which will have benefits of lowering the trade deficit and making the world a better place.

Unfortunately, I don't see this happening.

Lower fuel and home prices stall green building

Lower fuel and home prices stall green building from the Associated Press. I am not surprised. It's also an issue there are no real green standards across that nation yet. My suggestion is the need to put it in the building codes. And with the more being built with energy savings, this will also reduce the cost difference. I am more in favor of energy savings in designs, than if recycled material was used or not.

Solar Meets Polar as Winter Curbs Clean Energy

Solar Meets Polar as Winter Curbs Clean Energy from the NY Times.

As I live in usually pretty Sunny Southern California I did not think about.

I wonder what impact winter has in Germany on Solar.

Philips & LED's

Royal Philips Sheds Old Businesses for New Directions - from the NY Times.

My strategy teacher for my MBA did some work on restructuring Philips 10 years ago in Centurion. Unfortunately Centurion was a good start, but did not go far enough. It's hard to move a super tanker in a new direction. The supertanker has also slimmed down and focused on a few key areas, one of these is LED's which I agree with, has a huge amount of potential.

2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid: 52 mpg and the darkness before dawn

2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid: 52 mpg and the darkness before dawn - LA Times.

Better late than never! Now the question is how soon will the price of Oil increase, causing increased demand for this car.

The other problem is $25,000 for the car. You can buy a Corolla for $13,000. So $12,000 difference. Assume 20,000 miles driven per year. The payback period would be over 5 years is my guess (yes I feel a bit lazy). Assume $2/gallon gas and the Corolla gets 30 MPG. Fusion say 50 MPG. So every year the Corolla uses 666.7 Gallons, and the Fusion 400, difference is 266.7. So every year at $2 per gallons about $530 is saved. At $4 per Gallon, it's $1060. Which means a 12 year payback. Now if you compare it to a Camry, a different figure would come out with a shorter payback time.

SUV Plant Closes

It’s the End of the Line for S.U.V.’s from the NY Times. Story about GM closing one of their last SUV plants, now the Big 3 each only have one left. I am curious if the price of gas stays low, will people start buying SUV's in the huge amounts they were before? Another story mentioned it was almost like people needed permission to buy things. It's a strange economy. My opinion is SUV's are fine, as long as they are hybrids with meaningful mileage - so up the requirements for CAFE! I still don't understand why nobody in the US has come out with a hybrid Minivan. Toyota has had one in Japan for years. Of course it's not the whale of a minivan they sell here.

SUV Plant closes

It’s the End of the Line for S.U.V.’s from the NY Times. Story about GM closing one of their last SUV plants, now the Big 3 each only have one left. I am curious if the price of gas stays low, will people start buying SUV's in the huge amounts they were before? Another story mentioned it was almost like people needed permission to buy things. It's a strange economy. My opinion is SUV's are fine, as long as they are hybrids with meaningful mileage - so up the requirements for CAFE! I still don't understand why nobody in the US has come out with a hybrid Minivan. Toyota has had one in Japan for years. Of course it's not the whale of a minivan they sell here.

Analyst warns of 'solar market eclipse' in 2009

Analyst warns of 'solar market eclipse' in 2009 from the EE Times.

Key Points:

• Global Revenue in 2009 is supposed to be down 19%
• Massive oversupply of PV due to a glut.
• 9.6% increase in PV installed.
• New installs will be $2.50 to $2.75 per watt range, down from the current level of $4.20 per watt.

Hmm... I wonder what the point the drop in price will increase demand? This is a 41% decrease in cost. And since half the cost of an install is labor. Hmm... I am not sure the figures add up, unless there is some increase in the efficiency of installs.

Puff Up a Stock - Do Solar

Kaneka Soars on Report Company to Make Solar Cells in Europe - I am sure this is just a coincidence their stock has gone down 42% ytd, and the question is what expertise does a manufacturer of synthetic resin have on making thin film. I wonder if anyone in 6 months will remember the details.

Alternate Energy Funding

I am curious what is going to happen in this area, since the incoming Secretary of Energy questions the cost effectiveness of Ethanol, yet the incoming Secretary of Agriculture is very pro Ethanol. And with the falling prices of oil, it has hurt Ethanol a lot.

L.A.'s solar plan could cost ratepayers

L.A.'s solar plan could cost ratepayers - Interesting article about the proposal for LA City for Solar from the LA Times.

Oil at $32

OPEC's holiday gift to us: Oil at $36 a barrel Los Angeles Times

The question is for how long?

Positives:

• Form of economic aid that will shorten the recession by putting more money into consumers pockets. This is huge! When Oil was near $150 a barrel there were riots in poorer countries because of increases in the price of gas and cooking oil.
  
• Makes the world a nicer places and helps countries that are not oil producers (majority of the world, including the poor such as in India and Pakistan).
• May help the Big 3 by increasing truck sales.
  

Negatives:

• Hurts Oil Producers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russia.
• May decrease interest in Hybrids and Electric Vehicles
• May reduce investment in alternate energy R&D.
• May increase use of oil
• May reduce projects to increase oil efficiency.
  

Is Solar Cheaper than Coal? Examiner.com

Is Solar Cheaper than Coal? Examiner.com

Very positive piece. What is interesting is the article mentions that by 2012 their should be grid parity in many areas of the US. Of course what is meant by grid parity? Wholesale or Retail? With the ability to sell back to the utility, and if so, at what price?

Guerilla Lead Testing

Wow! I knew about the guns that can tell the types of metals, they are around $25,000 each. My former work was thinking about buying one since when you are buying scrap, it's often hard to tell what you are buying to it's too late. Now, some consumer watch dog organizations have bought these guns and are using them to test for lead.

Guerrilla Toy Testers Take Aim at Lead from the WSJ

LED Cost vs incandescent

LED bulbs save money, hassle from a local paper in Kentucky. Basically a $40 LED bulb will last forever and save energy and has color like daylight.

But how many people are going $40 on a bulb, when they can get a CFL for under $5 and an incandescent bulb for under a dollar.

I look forward to more cost reductions so the LED option makes more sense. For an application where you need to get on a ladder, such as my parents house outside light on the 2nd story, it makes sense (that light always burned out). For an easily accessible light, probably not at this time.

More businesses see holiday savings from LEDs

More businesses see holiday savings from LEDs from the SF Chronicle is about Christmas Lights, and how you can save over the 6 week Holiday Season $70 for a string of 300 bulbs.

Global PV Market's Center of Gravity Shifting to North America

This is exciting news, if true. My guess is the tax changes for alternative energy along with all the R&D in the US are creating this. Global PV Market's Center of Gravity Shifting to North America MarketWatch

An example, that surprised me, is Dow Corning Takes A Shine To Solar in partnership will invest up to $3 Billion. This is significant in the poor credit market, that Dow is moving ahead in the Solar area.

Solar Issues - Visual

Some neighbors may have visual issues with a solar project, an example: Solar panel project irks Novato homeowners. It would be replacing a beautiful view of some rolling hills.

It will be nice when solar can just replace existing roofs. Or even be a spray on coating. The problem of replacing an existing roof is the maintenance cost, where an installation on the ground is easier to install and maintain.

Impact of Under $2 Gas

Some Guesses:

1. Less demand for hybrids as long as price is low.
   
2. If price is low enough for enough time, increased demand for SUV's
3. Increase in speed driven
4. Increase in miles driven
5. Reduction in alternate energy funding from private sources.
6. Decrease in expenses for consumers.
7. Political issues in countries that are not the friendliest to the US (USSR, Iran, etc).
8. Possible impact on Iraq that may impact the US.
9. Decrease in demand to drill offshore in the US.
10. Decrease in drilling for new oil in the US
    
11. Older fields may no longer be economical
12. Decrease in looking for new fields
13. Decrease in oil sands since no longer economical (break even I believe is $50, oil is around $40 right now).
14. Increased demand for oil.
15. Lowering of supply by Opec to increase price.
    

Oil Increase - More on why

Another explanation from the WSJ for the increase in October oil imports was due to Hurricane Damage in the Gulf that reduced refinery output in the gulf, increasing the demand for oil imports.

Why did Oil imports increase?

Why have all the articles I have seen so far state that oil prices are down, US deficit is up because oil imports have increased in October, and the reason for the increase is?

Oh wait, here is one that explains it. Room for Second Guessing

The higher oil prices led to higher imports, as oil producers tried to take advantage of the price. Hence higher supply than demand, since the economic destruction in the US caused by higher oil prices was not seen.

Tariffs and Renewable Energy Requirements

Despite downturn, is German energy a model for Obama? from Reuters.

Germany is paying more for Solar energy, but the alternative is paying another country for cheaper energy. So there is some advantage on keeping the money in your own country. But, this makes me think of tariffs, and how those used to protect domestic industries. Is requiring a certain amount of power to be produced using renewable energies another form of tariff?

Theoretically, a company would be at a disadvantage by being required to pay higher energy costs because of a renewable requirement. The article does not answer the question is how much has the cost of energy for other users been increased? What are the above market rates?

Hybrids are a great example where if they don't make sense economically - ie high gas prices, most people won't buy them.

My opinion is since power companies in the US, or at least in California are regulated (ie the government decides how they will make a profit, that pushing solar to decrease the amount of money being sent out of the US makes sense in the long term.

I would like to see some analysis on if the increase in German demand for Solar has decreased the price of solar, or will it in the future? It has increased demand, which for a while increased prices, but theoritically this should be correcting itself with an increase in production. And with the increased production, this should have lowered costs due to economies of scale (the more you produce, the better you get at it, lowering the cost).

I found a chart of solar pricing including vs. electricity pricing. Basically in 2020 solar and what a consumer pays will be around the same! Only 12 years to go! Of course wind is pretty competitive now per the Economist Blowin' in the wind

The Afterlife of Cellphones - Cellular Telephone - Waste Materials ...

• Recycling feels good because we imagine it as just this kind of alchemy — which
•  Umicore achieves with impressive environmental controls. ...

Excellent Article on the recycling Industry!  It even mentions Basel!

Back at Junk Value, Recyclables Are Piling Up

Back at Junk Value, Recyclables Are Piling Up from the NY Times.  Basically the current poor economy has reduced the value of recycled material, which is causing problems for recyclers.

Gas - $1.69 last night at Costco

I am just amazed by the drop in Gas, basically 2/3rd's cheaper than just a few months ago when near $5.00. Good news is this is helping people's pocket books. Bad news is it's making that SUV cost less to operate, so people may not put a premium on a fuel efficient car, such as a Prius.

Solar's future doesn't look quite so sunny

Solar's future doesn't look quite so sunny from the MN Star Tribune. One point of view, basically that there will be over supply that will result in lower prices.

My view is with lower prices, that will increase demand resulting in more solar installations. And with the increase in production there will be further cost reductions in manufacturing, that will help lower the cost to the end user. Not to mention how technology keeps on increasing the efficiency. Short term, yes capital headaches due to the freezing of credit, medium and longer term I am very positive.

Toyota delays Lithium Batteries in Prius

The new date seems to be 2010 for Lithium Batteries in the Prius, Toyota is concerned about the reliability. May be the Sony Battery fires put them off.

The Energy Challenge: Energy Goals a Moving Target for States

The Energy Challenge: Energy Goals a Moving Target for States from the NY Times. It brings up a lot of issues based on the experience of states setting targets for renewables (the easy part), and then actually meeting them. The article briefly mentions a major problem, which is the transmission lines. Unfortunately they did not mention the easy solution of DC Power Transmission Lines!

Related Posts:

• Gore Urges Obama to Create US Power
• Grid limits Renewables
• DC Power High Voltage Transmission Advantages

Electric Car Chargers

Hawaii Endorses Plan for Electric Cars from the NY Times, basically the state working with a private company wants to set up recharger stations.

Questions that have not been asked:

1. How long does it take to charge a car?
2. Would most cars be charged a meaningful amount to justify the cost of the charging station?
3. Why not just charge them at home?
4. What is the estimated amount of Electric Cars per year (everyone is doing hybrids currently, plug ins are someday).
5. What is the estimated cost of an electric or plug in car by year?

My 2 cents, if cars are charged at home and they take a while to charge (battery technology unfortunately has not improved that much), what good does a charging station do? Is this the best use of money? Perhaps subsidies for electric cars that can be recharged at home first? Or set up a fleet of rental vehicles that people can use that are electric till the cost decreases?

Solar thermal projects gather steam -- and opposition

Solar thermal projects gather steam -- and opposition from the LA Times. I have a guess the reporter spent a bit of time with the Solar Thermal People, and next to none on Photovoltaics. The prospective of the entire article is pretty pro Solar Thermal.

Interesting...

Solar Panels Proliferate in Brooklyn

Solar Panels Proliferate in Brooklyn - With all the rebates the local home owners it makes a lot of sense, especially since they can sell the Electricity back to the utility (which is currently not possible in California).

Solar cell efficiency boosted

Solar cell efficiency boosted from the EE Times. The claim is a 50% increase in energy is possible theoretically for thin film. That would change everything...

Vatican Goes Solar

Vatican unveils ambitious solar energy plans from Reuters. The goal is by 2020 to have solar be 20% of it's solar needs. Nice symbolism, and since the system was donated it is not taking away money from other social activities. I would suggest having the Catholic Church overall use more solar, but from a financial viewpoint at this time it's probably not the best use of their resources. Especially since for example so many US diocese are cash strapped due to law suites and there may be better short term uses for the money (such as the amazing Catholic Schools).

New California Land Use Law

New land-use law's message: build near transit from the SF Chronicle.

I have read about this law in passing and I don't understand how it's going to change how new housing is built further and further out, since there is a lack of urban build up. Most people in CA is still in love with the detached single family dwelling if they can afford it, no matter the commute.

55 Mile Hour Speed Limit - Why not again?

55 Mile Hour Speed Limit - why not again? Because of Sammy Hagar's I can't drive 55?

It was implemented in 1974, modified in 1987 to allow 65 on longer stretches, and finally repealed in 1995. It reduced fuel usage by about .5 to 2.2% for the entire US. Today it may be more since the weight of cars has gone up, per this site Drive 55 Conservation Project 3%.

My opinion is nobody has the courage or sees the need at a National Level for the 55 MPH Speed Limit. Senator Warner brought it up, but he was retiring giving him the freedom to speak out.

References:

• Unmentioned Energy Fix: A 55 M.P.H. Speed Limit from the NY Times.
• Drive 55 Conservation Project
• National speed limit pushed as gas saver - CNN.com
• Would You Drive 55? - TIME

Related Posts:

• How to Kick Our Oil Addiction
• Energy Independence Requirements in 10 Years
• What If - Carter's Energy Policy

Solar in LA

Solar plan risks scorching LA's political future from the LA Times, bringing up the politics of this announcement. Before reading this I had some suspicion it was to make the mayor look better, but I had no idea whom was behind it. Fascinating! Estimated cost increase in a electricity bill is 2 to 8%.

Dot Earth: The (Tuna) Tragedy of the Commons

Dot Earth: The (Tuna) Tragedy of the Commons - translation - EU Politics won't allow a reduction since everyone is cheating on the quotas, till the stock finally collapses. Short sighted.

LA Solar Plan

Villaraigosa unveils solar plan for city of L.A. from the LA Times.

DWP, who provides power to LA does it super cheap currently with it's own power plants, including some coal burning ones. DWP escaped the deregulation fiasco that drove up so many other costs, since it was allowed to keep it's own power plants. It will be interesting to see the financial analysis of this. Personally, I would push Solar Water Heating since it's more cost effective, but, not as glamerous. Survivability of tax breaks in this time of severe economic pain. I hope they are kept, since the more energy the US produces for itself the better.

What would be nice is to make a list of energy projects for the City of LA, and see which ones get the most bang for the buck. Solar Photovoltaic, Green Buildings, effective public transit (don't get me started on the MTA), solar water heating, or ?

Projector Screen Environmentalism

Projector Screens are a niche market, one that is being replaced by LCD's and other large screens as they decrease in price. I have started to help out a company doing some marketing for them that distributes Projector Screens in the US.

Projector screens are a lot more complicated than I thought. There is different fabric types not to mention the different coatings, and of course the mechanical part of it. The different coatings vary in the viewing angle and how the color looks. And then there is the environmental angle. Yes, the screens are made by an ISO9002 certified manufacturer, but there is more than that to being green. An area I need to find out more about.

And of course there is the different markets, home theater, education, and business. And of course the products from fixed screen, electric, manual pull down, and pull up.

Minimum Gas Price

What would be the impact of setting a minimum price for gas economically?

Say set it at $4.50 as Thomas Friedman suggested to assure the development of alternative energy sources, increases in fuel efficient cars, and use the tax benefits to invest in alternate energy. The extra for alternate energy assumes there could be a difference, with a lower price of gas + variable tax = $4.50.

What's the incentive for the service station to shop around for lower gas, and the suppliers just set the wholesale price at $4.40, allow the gas station to make 10 cents. I would guess a percentage of the difference would need to be given to the station so they shop for the best price. The higher the difference, the higher their profit.

On the economic side, with the price of gas being more than halved that is helping households, my guess is a couple of hundred every month. I am surprised this has not had any positive effect yet, but I am sure it will in time. The only negative is more usage of gas due to lower prices.

Speeding more with cheaper gas

I noticed today when I was going 65 on the local freeway, I was being passed a lot by cars going, my estimate 80 or more. My guess is the cheap price of gas is letting people drive less fuel efficiently. Sad...

GM's Volt - Will it save GM?

Known:

1. Only 10,000 first year will be sold.
2. Volt is due in late 2010
3. Low margins due to development cost
4. Will sell for around $40,000
5. Toyota will have a plug in available by 2010.
6. SUV Hybrids have sold poorly.
7. Conversion kits for a Prius to make it a plug in costs $6000 to $30,000
8. GM has a poor history of introducing new technology.
9. GM is hemorrhaging about a Billion a month
10. Each GM employee is supporting 3 retirees and dependents.
11. GM has tremendous over capacity.
12. GM has poor labor relations.
    

So I don't under how the Volt will save GM?

Excellent oped/article with some ideas that make sense: How Detroit Drove Into a Ditch

Solar up or down?

Solar Shines Bright In Dark Economy from marketwatch is positive, ie Solar is going up.  This article hints from the WSJ Clean Energy Confronts Messy Reality brings up the challenge of the lack of financing due to the credit squeeze.

My guess, increased interest, but not a lot of bigger projects due to financing issues.

Prioritization and Global Warming

Interesting article asking the question what is the best allocation of resources, global warming or taking care of other huge issues? Cafe Hayek: The Skeptical Economist. The Copenhagen Consensus sounds interesting,

Big 3 Bail Out & Environmentalism

The Environmental Motor Company from the WSJ, basically saying congress wants to make the Big 3 as part of the bail out super green as per the Sierra Club.

Interesting editorial with a definite viewpoint.

Known information:
1. Detroit has an over capacity issue.
2. Detroit has a healthcare & pension legacy cost issue.
3. Detroit has to many dealers.
4. Detroit has focused on SUV's with high margins, that do not sell with higher gas prices.
5. Detroit is running out of money because of low sales.
6. Detroit does not have many products in production in the US that are very fuel efficient.
7. Detroit in general is behind in hybrids.
8. Detroit has an adversarial relationship with their workers (ie unions).
9. The Bush administration fear more problems if tax payer money is used and accusations of socialism.
10. The democrats were heavily supported by the unions.
11. The democrats will have a larger majority in the new congress.
12. Bailing out the auto companies is not popular with the public at large. The first bailout of Wall Street was not popular.
13. Republicans's at this time are not backing a bail out of the big 3.
14. Strong supporters of the democratic party is the green lobby.
15. Big 3 currently employ 239,000 people, plus suppliers and dealers is around 3 Million, not counting retirees being supported. And then there is the job banks program.
16. In 2010, a UAW trust will take over retiree health care costs.
17. EU will not be happy about Auto Subsides (WTO complaint possibly).

Given the above information, it's a mess and I am glad I am not making the decision! Looks like political suicide now matter what happens.

I like Thomas Friedman's suggestion in How to Fix a Flat of a non-partisan board to make tough decisions.

How to Kick Our Oil Addiction

How to Kick Our Oil Addiction from the WSJ.  Interesting that none of the contributors mentioned the 55 MPH Speed limit, political suicide. I thought my 20 item list of How to Kick Our Oil Addiction was better.

US Prius Delay

American-built Prius may be on hold till 2011, from 2010- Los Angeles Times. Rumor is due to slower sales caused by the fall in the price of gas. What is interesting is Lithium batteries are not mentioned, just the nickel hydride ones. Which disagrees with this Toyota Confirms 2009 Model Lithium-Ion Prius.

United Flight Saves Fuel With Green Tech

United Flight Saves Fuel With Green Tech from the SF Chronicle. The technology being better weather information received (translation, improve the FAA communications, control, and weather systems) that enabled a more efficient flight and landing. Part of the problem is the FAA has two missions, one is making sure flights are safe, and the other for the ground control.

There also may be the issue that the FAA has been collecting money to upgrade the system and has not spent it, which helps the treasury department. I remember something about that, but I can't find any references.

U.N. Reports Pollution Threat in Asia

U.N. Reports Pollution Threat in Asia from the NY Times. The impact on health which is a hidden cost could be 3.5% of GDP in China I read (the next article uses 3%). And if their growth is 10%, then -3% is 7%. Huge opportunity if they can clean up the environment to increase the growth rate, that would be win win.

Longer article that has more details - As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes

Texas Adjusts Its Grid for Wind

Texas Adjusts Its Grid for Wind from the NY Times. Good article, Texas can get as much as 16% of it's power from wind, the problem is wind is erratic.

Concrete Streams

I was walking back from lunch and I did not realize next to my office is a stream, but it's been concreted over. And in back of my house there is another stream that goes in back of some houses before it goes into the storm drains. What a waste! I live in the Los Angeles area, so may be this explains it.

Oil Crises

1973 Oil Embargo - Caused by Yom Kipper War.
1976 - Shah of Iran loses power.
1979 - Iran Hostage Crises
1992- Gulf War I
2000's - Caused by growth in China and India not being matched by growth of oil supply. May have been some future trading.

And historically when the price of oil has gone down, research into alternate energy sources has also gone down.

Shedding light on solar cell technology

Shedding light on solar cell technology from the EE Times.  Good chart that explains the different types of Solar.  

What would have been nice is having more estimated projected costs over the next 10 years and have a comparison of other types of energy costs.

Energy Independence Requirements in 10 Years

At my Alumni Day the keynote speaker was Daniel Yankelovich. Great speach which I enjoyed a lot. Excellent speach titled "The new pragmatism:" Coping with America's overwhelming problems".

A question came up about Energy Independence, and his answer was it was not possible in 10 years...

I disagree, it's possible, but not very likely.

What is required for Energy Independence:

1. Get nuke plants built. Likelyhood - little or none.

2. Drill offshore - to do this, share revenue with states. Likelyhood - little or none.

3. Increase the Gas Tax, to make Gas at a minimum of $4 or $5 a gallon. This decreases gas usage and increase fuel efficiency as people buy smaller cars. Use extra tax money to fund rebates for poorer families. Likelyhood - little or none.

4. Increase CAFE requirements.

5. Let states set Emission Requirements.

6. Set up a couple of X Prizes for alternate energy.

7. Build a nationwide High Voltage DC Grid.

8. Invest in MHD for burning Coal. So many advantages!

9. Require all cars in the US to be flex fuel.

10. Create fair incentives for plug ins. ie don't aim it at only GM's vehicle.

11. Build more coal plants in the US. Likelyhood - little or none.

12. Require Solar Thermal for hot water on all new houses and put in place subsidies so people put it in existing houses.

13. Increase efficiency standards for new houses and offices. ie Green Standards for energy usage. Huge potential savings here.

14. Make the tax code so it pays for improvements that reduce energy usage. Unfortunately companies unless their is an immediate ROI are not smart enough for the most part to put in energy efficient projects that require a payback of longer than a year.

15. For older cars that are gas guzzlers, offer a tax incentive to junk them.

16. Put a tax on incandescents to make them $3 each. LED's - Still at $17 for the cheapest one, but they have . Lighting uses 50% of the energy equivalant as used by autos. They are 2X as efficient as CFL's, and last 5 to 10X as long. CFL's cost around $3 now, Incandescent 50 cents. Haitz's Law saves every 10 years the price of LED's falls X10. Subsidize LED's by 50% to give a cost of $9 each, and with the increased production this will decrease the cost. CFL's are a short term solution until LED's become more cost efficient. So replacing all the incandescent bulbs with LED's would reduce the energy usage by a huge amount. Banning incandescents would be another approach.

17. Put the 55 MPH speed limit back in force - Likelyhood - little or none.

18. Make sure alternative energy can get needed capital.

19. Colorado Oil Shale - make it happen.

20. Tap Arctic National Wildlife Reserve for oil. - Likelyhood - little or none.

My opinion - I am a big fan of solar, LED's, and plug-ins must be my electronics background.

Gore Urges Obama to Create US Power Grid

Gore Urges Obama to Create US Power Grid - DC High Power Grid would solve a lot of issues, an Interstate Highway for the 21st century. Great for alternative energy, especially wind.

Related Posts:

• Grid limits Renewables
• DC Power High Voltage Transmission Advantages

Walkibilty

It's frustrating in newer areas that the sidewalks are right against the curb and with street lights in the middle of them, so trying to walk next to a partner is impossible. And you keep on going up and down with the drive ways. In older towns, there is a strip between the street and the sidewalk. I wish they would have still required that, it makes walking so much more pleasant.

Solar Stocks Down - Another Strange Day

SunPower warning sends solar stocks tumbling Reuters

Another strange day on Wall Street!

LED Backlit Screen - Nice

I just got my daughter a new MacBook, one that has the backlit LED screen.  Wonderful color!  It's also more efficient on the color.  Since I have been using PC's since I bought a 286 for work related reasons, my poor Mac SE, this is a big change.

Ethanol producer

America's second largest ethanol producer goes titsup - The Register.

I like the quirky humor of The Register, and the stories are usually pretty good.

VeraSun Energy, the second-largest producer of corn-based ethanol did some future trading/betting that the price of corn would keep on going up, but they lost the bet resulting in losing the company. Why did they lose the bet? Larger harvests of corn, decrease price of oil, and decrease demand for gas resulting in less demand for Ethanol increasing the supply of corn.

I wonder if this will change the requirement at all for adding more Ethanol to the gas supply.

Will LEDs replace compact fluorescent bulbs?

Will LEDs replace compact fluorescent bulbs? | csmonitor.com - Sounds a little bit like this came from a press release for ZetaLux, but I may be wrong. It would have been nice if the article had a cost curve for CFL vs. LED vs. Incandescent over time as well as volumes.

Green in the Rust Belt

A Splash of Green for the Rust Belt from the NY Times. Some alternate energy businesses are setting up manufacturing in the US mid-west, which is very exciting. I hope more of this happens. The challenge in manufacturing jobs is just not outsourcing to China, but also increased productivity. Productivity means that less people are required to make the same, or even more of the same product.

SUV's saved by Lower Gas Prices?

Car dealers find traction in declining gas prices - Boston Herald

I am not surprised, people's memories are so short and the prices on SUV's are amazing. If this goes on for a couple more months, I would not be surprised if this really helps out GM and Ford, and may be even change the product line up again, which lately became focused on fuel efficiency. Of course, I think all their SUV's should be Hybrids that focus on better mileage, they have the margin to add that and still make a nice profit! That would be a nice requirement, along with flex fuel.

The solar vote - Israel

Israel I would have thought would have more Solar, they do require Solar Thermal for water heating. The solar vote is an editorial about how Israel needs to develop more solar.

Under $3 Gas - More SUV's on the Road

In my area recently, I noticed there seems to be more SUV's and trucks driving around. And the line for gas at Costco is so much smaller. It makes me wonder if the the amount of miles driven is going to go up again, increasing the demand for gas, and resulting in higher gas prices.

Toyota - What's Next

So so article from the Washington Post on Toyota. Toyota Hard Hit but Equipped to Steer Clear

What the article missed is the fall in US sales and the fact that it takes 5 years for a new car model to come out. I thought the US plan for Prius was going to start production in 2009, not 2010. My mistake, and it's a new plant which explains the lead time. I am not sure why they just don't change a truck plant to make Prius, with the flexible manufacturing of Toyota it should be easier. But a headache is the Prius components, and where these are going to be manufactured from the batteries to the IGBT's to the electric motors, these I would guess are all custom parts.

Solar Chargers - Bottom up change

Solar is becoming economical first in areas that people are willing to pay a premium for it, such as military and off road uses. Another example of this - ICP and Wal-Mart See Huge Market for Solar Chargers in 2009

Low Oil Prices Take Wind Out Of Renewables

Low Oil Prices Take Wind Out Of Renewables from the SF Chronicle.

I am afraid of this.

Interesting quote:

"So if you believe that we are about to enter a rather severe global recession ... then my guess is it won't be long before oil prices are back where they were before this spiral began, back in the $20s," said Jerry Taylor, senior analyst with the Cato Institute think tank. "And political interest in energy will disappear."

Solar Thermal

1st solar-thermal in years is on - McClatchy Washington Bureau and it's in California!

Under $3 Gas

I went to Costco tonight near our house and gas was under $3. Wow!

Some questions I have:

• Are people now going to forget the habits they developed when gas was near $ a gallon?
  
• Will this kill the new Electric cars?
  
• Will this help the Big 3 that depended on high margin trucks for their profits?

The decrease in prices is relatively new, so my thought is give it a few more weeks to see how people react to it. The price of oil seems to be very volatile, and may actually fall even more. Even if OPEC Orders Cut in Oil Production. Personally, I am more open on Thanksgiving weekend to driving due to the lower price of gas.

Oil in Cuba

How Cuba's Oil Find Could Change the US Embargo from Time Magazine. If true, this could help the US. Of course we have that political albatross called the embargo. We have better relations if you can believe it with North Korea (which is a lot worse than Cuba), than Cuba. The truth is if the US eliminated the embargo it would hurt the political regime in Cuba more than the US. The embargo actually helps the communist party keep power. And oil does have a way of making the US friendlier, we are selling agriculture products to Cuba.

Solar material absorbs entire spectrum

Solar material absorbs entire spectrum - seems current solar cells only absorb part of the spectrum. So I would guess the efficiency rating is based on what part of the spectrum they can absorb, which means solar cells that can absorb more of the spectrum would have a lot more power per area of the photovoltaic material.

Positive Article on Solar

U.S. solar boom to include manufacturing, too from the Mercury News. Very positive article. The question is the credit crisis going to derail this? That can include the government tax breaks and just the ability for manufacturers to get financing to fund their expansion. The increase in the deficit and decrease in the price of oil may make the funding of alternate energy less of a priority for the both the government and private industry, unfortunately.

Natural Gas Cars

Thais Lead Drive to Natural-Gas Cars from the WSJ. The motivation is many nations have Natural Gas, but not oil, and this way they can reduce their dependence on foreign oil. I have seen a few natural gas cars in the US, I believe all have been by Honda.

Less Alternate Energy Investment?

As Prices Fall, Push for Alternatives May Ease from the Washington Post. Good article on how the lower price of oil may kill investment in electric cars and other ways to reduce the need for oil. It even mentioned the EV1. And remember, it takes 5 years for a new car to be designed and go into production...

Excellent Quote:

"If oil goes down to $60 or $70 a barrel and gasoline gets back to $2.50 a gallon, and that very possibly could happen," he said, "will that demand stay the same or will we shift back up?"

Bill Reinert, Toyota Prius designer.

Sounds like time to buy GM and Ford :-)

Cheap Oil - Venezuala

Oil-Fueled Nation Feels Pinch - from the Washington Post about Venezuela. They need $94 per barrel oil, and it's around $70 right now. Venezuala does have foreign reserves, but how long will they last?

Estimates are a year, if spending is not increased...

Solar Needed in Pakistan

Solar energy only way to meet energy needs: expert - Daily Times, Pakistan

Interesting point in the article that Pakistan has lots of Government officials that are supposed to help solar, but no solar installed. The reason is corruption and red tape.

As prices fall for Solar, I believe it will be a good solution for places that don't have a grid already in place. Electricity Grids are not cheap. I wish the article had talked more of the economics of solar, but my SWAG is it does not make sense yet in Pakistan based on the economics. Solar Water Heaters now do, since they can be built with local materials. LED Lamps also make sense, and could have a good economic impact spreading education into areas that don't have power. A problem is the government from what I can tell overall, is not focused on improving the economy, which is unfortunate.

Oil Prices Slip Below $70 a Barrel

Oil Prices Slip Below $70 a Barrel - this is going to hurt the Economies of Iran and Venezuela.

Interesting Quote:
The drop in prices has already created problems for oil producers. Iran and Venezuela both need oil prices at $95 a barrel to balance their national budgets, Russia needs $70 and Saudi Arabia needs $55 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank estimates

Of course the economies of the world are not doing that great right now, which is reducing demand for oil. Nigeria's rebels pushed too hard, so finally something is being done to increase oil production there. Iraq is coming along. Iran has the embargo which has resulted in reduced production. Mexico, decreasing due to lack of investment. Brazil, some positive changes in a couple of years. North Seas - declining.

Alternate energy, it's around $55 per barrel currently and the price is dropping every year due to better technology. I wonder if anyone has done a extrapolation on this based on trends for the last couple of years. Something like Moores Law. And of course, if Oil goes to $30 for a couple of years this would devastate the alternate energy area and kill R&D in it, again. But it seems that Saudi needs to keep the price up (question if the $55 price they need can be decreased by canceling non important projects).

The question is can the OPEC nations actually decrease oil, since they do need the money in. Is India and China have increased demand for Oil? When will coal gasification in China have an impact on their imports? When will more nuclear and coal plants have an impact on oil imports in China?

And in a couple of years, what impact will increases in fuel economy with all the hybrid and electric cars that are coming out have on oil usage? What will a new US administration do for energy conservation?

We do live in interesting times!

Tesla Delays Sedan and Layoff

Tesla Says It Will Lay Off Employees and Delay Its All-Electric Sedan Until 2011 - I did not expect this, but with this quote, it's not unexpected:
Mr. Musk is the fourth chief executive since the company was founded in 2003.

You can't keep on changing CEO's that quickly and have a clear strategy/direction.

1st vs. 2nd Generation Solar Cells

I get so frustrated with Press Releases that use jargon. Here is one about 2nd Generation Solar Cells - Sharp to deliver second-generation solar cells in U.S.

So what is a first generation solar cell and how is a second generation different? The key is the use of the world thin film I would guess.

The press release, oops I mean article, states the first generation uses 560 x 925 mm verses second generation that uses 1,000 x 1,400, which means the second generation is cheaper. I am not sure if the 9% efficiency is part of the second generation, of what. First generation is closer to 33% efficiency, but at a much higher cost.

This is the best explanation I have found so far of the difference between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation solar cells. Correction, a better one - Solar Genealogy: On Three Generations of Solar Cells.

Dell > All LED?

Dell sees the Light...Emitting Diode CNET News, CA - Sep 24, 2008

When Dell does a change, you know that the cost has dropped enough it's mainstream. Dell in the technology area has historically been a follower, where they have excelled is in the supply chain and in the sales area for B2B. The LED displays will be replacing the LCD's that are CCFl technology. The advantage is less power is needed for LED's. The difference basically between a CCFL and an LED, is one is used as a backlight for liquid crystal displays, where the LED generates the light directly and at a much lower voltage.

Energy Stocks After Correction

Sustainable Energy After the Correction - interesting article, the LED's are since it does not depend on subsidies is interesting, now to find out what is considered LED stocks. My worry on LED's is the big players like GE and Phillips will come in dominate the market, both companies already have semiconductor operations and Lights are such a commodity. The only area I would guess has potential (this is without researching) would be in the area of patents.

Three articles I need to read:

• LED Stocks Get Some Respect | Alternative Energy Stocks

• Ten Alternative Energy Speculations for 2008: LEDs and Ultracaps ...

• LED Stocks | Investing in Led Technology

Tubular Solar

And now the Economist's version! Tubular sunshine

The Economists version actually explained how the solar panel worked and why it was so valuable. It should reduce installation time by 50%! And since installation is 50% of the cost of a solar panel, this is pretty major.

Previous posts:

• Solyndra - More Details (Mercury News Article)

• New Solar design backed by Walton VC Fund NY Times Article

Analyst of Solar from Forbes

Ahead of the Bell: Analyst cuts solar estimates

Keypoints: Supply should exceed demand and credit crunch will actually help larger companies.

- My grade C+

Items that would have been in a Grade A article

1. What impact will the new tax credits have on solar demand.
2. What impact will the CA tax credits have on solar demand.
3. Will the price of the raw material silicon decrease? Are new factories for producing it coming online or has investment been delayed?
   

How Energy Saving Appliances Should Be Sold

Why is selling an energy savings appliance still in the stone age?

Why when I go to a store do I have to look at a hard copy explaining the energy savings with information that is out of date and hard to figure out?

Why not a computer touch screen. Enter in my old dryer, year and mfg, front load, gas and compare the energy savings on a new one? And with a simple online connection you would get the current energy prices in my area. Or may be enter in my zip code to get them.

If this is so simple to do, why is nobody doing this?

Washers, Refridgerators, Dryers, Water Heaters should all be sold using this! It could show you the energy savings with the different models.

Solyndra - More Details

Fremont's Solyndra goes from stealth to solar star from the Mercury News. Interesting the difference from the NY times article. My previous post New Solar design backed by Walton VC Fund that referenced this article Solyndra, with over $600M in funding, finally shows its solar hand.

Both articles are good, the NY Times one had more on the finance side, where the Merc one had more on the market and technology.

Neither did a great job of explaining how the product works.

High Energy Thursday: With oil down, is our green future at risk?

High Energy Thursday: With oil down, is our green future at risk? from the NY Times. If oil falls to far, Green Energy will take a hit. The good thing is every time going through this cycle (3 times so far), green energy gets cheaper and cheaper and closer to be competitive with oil.

Presidential Candidates and Alternative Energy

No Friend of Solar Power - The Washington Independent, D A negative for the other candidate is supporting Ethanol that just does not make economic sense.

There are some positive ideas from both candidates, I wish the best ideas from both candidates would be implemented.

New Solar design backed by Walton VC Fund

Solyndra, with over $600M in funding, finally shows its solar hand by the New York Times. Solyndra has a design that uses tubes, so they don't need to be at an angle. I wish I could see a drawing. Walton family is one of the investors.

Solar - Where are the cost estimates?

So the Congress approved Solar tax credits along with California. Germany, Japan, and Spain already have them. China is going gangbusters on getting more solar capacity.

So what is this going to do to demand and supply?

How is this going to affect pricing?

What is going on with the raw material needed for most solar cells that has gotten so costly?

Bottom line, how will all of this impact the consumer in the next 8 years? Even some SWAG would be nice to see! What impact will the slowing economy have on the solar industry?

An example here, is a $31,904 system cost the homeowner after all the rebates $11,805 with an estimated payback period of 5-7 years. Bailout bill also includes array of solar incentives

Capitalism to the Rescue?

Capitalism to the Rescue from the NY Times Magazine about VC Green investments. Good read. I did not know about the Norwegian Think battery car or Bloom Energy (fuel cell) that has required $250 Million to date in investements over the past 6 years and is still a couple of years from IPO. Ausra is interesting, low tech competitor to solar thermal. The challenge is since their are existing competitors that to do the same thing, how can they scale up the processes so they are cost efficient. When I talk about competitors, perhaps the right word is alternatives. BioFuel vs. regular oil, if the cost of the bio fuel is higher, then without goverment mandates people will usually go with the lower cost solution.

Solar Tax Credits Passes

I am surprised the solar tax credit passed with the amount of times it had been killed. By putting it in the Wall Street Bill was smart, otherwise it would have been left since congress is now on break. So 8 years of tax credits, that helps a lot for planning. Will it help prices? Probably not in the short term, since there will be an increase in demand with the lower prices to the end user and it takes time to ramp up production (which costs).

So the question is will the solar manufacturers be able to get the credit they need to take advantage of this bill?

Los Angeles Transit Plans

Measure R is a ballot initiative for Los Angeles County that would raise the sales tax by half cent. My guess is with the economy, it will fail since it needs a 2/3rds vote. Not to mention how the area I live in per this editorial is being short changed. San Gabriel Valley gets MTA crumbs by a local mayor in the San Gabriel Tribune.

Clouds loom over solar panel ramp up

Clouds loom over solar panel ramp up from the EE Times. The question or challenge will the US be renewing the tax credits? I am not sure about the statement the industry was willing to sell at a loss to keep market share for a couple of years. From what I can tell that not correct.

Solar tax credit rises again

Solar tax credit rises again as part of the Wall Street Bailout. Senate approved it, but we will see with the house that is scheduled to vote on it Friday.

Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic

I was just reading an article about somebody combining the two types of solar. Seems like deja vu, the same idea was tried a while ago. A challenge with solar voltaic is heat, and solar thermal (heating water) needs heat, so why not combine the two?

Here's the article. Waste Not, Want Not: A New Approach to Solar from the NY Times.

And now of course I can't find the older work I was thinking of. I did find one on using solar for water purification.

Solar Tax Credit - Not this year

Not very good news today:

Ominous omens for solar tax credit
Bizjournals.com, NC - 8 hours ago
The solar investment tax credit will not be extended on Monday, killing the last best hope for the extension to be renewed before the November presidential ...
Lawmakers at Impasse on Incentives for Renewable Energy New York Times
Solar Roundup: Tax Credits Remain in Limbo, Solar Raises Millions Greentech Media
Congress Bickers, Solar Stocks CrumbleEarth2Tech

Solar Water Heaters - Doing it right

Solar water heaters growing in power-hungry Burkina Faso

Key Points:

• Reduces deforestation.
• Local people taught by NGO how to build solar water heaters.
• Win win for all involved.
  

Still no word on solar tax credit extension

Still no word on solar tax credit extension and House Passes Tax Bill That Could Jeopardize Solar Tax Breaks - I would give it 20% chance of passing this year, before Congress adjourns.

I hope it passes in a form that won't be vetoed.

Nigeria - Rebels overplayed hand?

NIGERIA: Clean, Lean, Mean And On The Offensive

Key Points:

• New army commander because the previous one may have been corrupt.
• Rebels are demanding a cease fire.
• Investigators have been sent to check reports of payoffs to the military in the delta.

Hopefully this will payoff. Lots of corruption in Nigeria with the rebels able to make money by siphoning off the oil, which buys them speedboats and weapons. It looks like as long as they did not cause to much damage they were ignored, as the local government was more focused on lining their pockets. But they did too much damage, so now the military in the area seems to be cleaning itself up and being more effective.

Nigeria has such potential, but the corruption has hurt the country so much.

Solar Thieves

Thieves Are Stealing Solar Panels and Selling them from the NY Times. Pretty sad, but with the high cost if people are stealing copper, why not solar panels?

Solar Tax Credits?

Sunny Day For Solar from Forbes. Looks like the Senate passed them, now the House and Senate need to agree and get the Pres. to sign before Congress goes on break. 50% chance of passage per Forbes.

Chrysler's Electric Car

I wonder if they will name it Colt, instead of Volt.

Oil Roller Coaster

Record single-day increase in oil prices from the SF Chronicle and Oil Rises More Than $10 on US Bailout Plan, Weaker Dollar from Bloomberg.

Next Big Industry - Energy Technology?

Per Thomas Friedman's Column today, Thomas L. Friedman: No Laughing Matter, the next big industry is Energy Technology. And if the US government just focused a little bit on this, it would help the economy of the US tremendously by allowing us to be leaders in this.

It's definitely something to think about.

Why Energy Technology is important:

• Energy is an important part of our economy that when it rises in cost can cause substantial issues.
  
• Global warming as well
• Increased income causing increased pollution in the world and energy usage.
• Example of where Detroit is today (near bankruptcy again) and where Toyota, who invested in the Prius is today.
• Increased Energy efficiency would make the US economy more cost competitive and healthier. There is a lot of potential energy savings in green buildings, transportation, more efficient motors, DC Powerlines, etc.
  

Summary - a lot of challenges to the environment as well as to the economy that could Energy Technology solve.

Traditional Energy's Modern Boom

Traditional Energy's Modern Boom from the Washington Post.

It shows the power of higher prices for energy also leads to the development of more traditional sources of energy, such as more drilling for oil and gas in the Continental US. The articles does not mention, but it also leads to new technology to increase the yields of older oil fields (which the US has a lot of). The percentage keeps on going up with new technology and techniques.

E-waste crackdown needed, GAO study says

I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! - Casablanca.

E-waste crackdown needed, GAO study says from the Mercury News.

E-Waste is a low margin business that does not attract the most wonderful people in the world. It's full of wheeler dealer types that are looking to make whatever they can.

And what's strange is China does not allow the importation of E-Waste. I heard the cost was $100 bill taped to the side per container that had legally been sent to HK.

Senate Vote on Alt. Energy Credits

Wind, solar tax credits up for Senate vote from MarketWatch sounds very positive, but my gut feeling, and I hope I am wrong, is neither side will want to do anything that will seem to help the other in the last couple weeks of an Presidential Election. Republicans want more nukes, and democrats more Wind.

Toyota and Volt - Watch what you wish for...

The Prius was started as a way to meet proposed standards in California per the book, The Prius that shook the world, about the design of the Prius. Per others, it was because of Next Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) program that Toyota was not allowed to join because they were a Japanese Manufacter and all the American big three could. John's Stuff - Toyota Prius History has some information. This article has the official Toyota version, Feature Article - The Toyota Prius:

What is missing is how internally, Toyota management set a very challenging deadline (imposible, but somehow it was achieved). I wonder if GM by waving the Volt in Toyota's face is doing the same thing. The Plug In version of the Prius from what I can tell has been slowly developed by Toyota due to quality concerns with the battery life. My gut feeling is with the Volt Toyota may push a plug in version much faster.

I wonder if Toyota would come out with an all Electric versio of the Prius before the Volt came out? Eliminate the Motor and replace it with batteries?

Reference:

• Toyota Plans Electric Car, Earlier Plug-In Prius Test (Update2)

$90 a Barrel Oil

A positive of the drop in the price of oil is in the US, Inflation Eases on Oil Price Drops per the WSJ. But, it is hard to invest in alternate energy when you have no idea will the price of oil keep on going down, and if so, how far down. It's around $90 and that's with Hurricane Ike impact on production (which still has not restarted). The fear is that the world is going into a recession which will decrease the demand for oil in the future.

If the price of oil crashes, I hope the research into alternate energy keeps on going. The Prius was created due to an effort by the US government to develop a more fuel efficient car, the sad thing was the effort got canceled, yet Toyota came out with the Prius over 10 years ago. And if you can believe it, GM still has nothing to compete with it. Bob Lutz once said that hybrids is just a Toyota PR stunt. And per GM, the new Volt will be a money loser for quite few years. So how does Toyota make money on the Prius? Because they were willing to invest in it as a way to learn about the new technology. Like GM should have done with the EV1, instead of killing it. Who Killed the Electric Car?

US Auto Makers Target Battery Gap With Japan

US Auto Makers Target Battery Gap With Japan - sad article about how the US is behind in battery technology. My suggestion is place an order with Yuasa for 5 years and have as part of it a US built factory is required. Yuasa Exide has been making batteries in the US for a while. The challenge is Japanese car makers I am sure have been signing long term contracts with battery manufacturers in Japan for a while.

Balance in Drilling and Conservation

Today's Thomas Friedman's column, Thomas L. Friedman: Making America Stupid and a review of his most recent book, 'Hot, Flat, and Crowded' (great excerpt). Review, A Chilling View of Warming is interesting.

My 2 cents, Mr. Friedman is getting too strident, I believe there needs to be a balance. Mr. Friedman is full of great ideas and his analysis of the Middle East is excellent. I agree with him on the need for alternate energy expansion in the US, the question is what is the best method. In his latest book, he is suggesting forcing it by having higher prices for fuel, such as a gas tax. As well as expanding the solar market through subsidies, that would then produce greater cost efficiencies as production increases.

My opinion is the US needs to:

• Expand drilling offshore, such as in California, as well as allow offshore windmills.
• Set a floor on Gasoline, such as at $4 a gallon. For lower income families, have a rebate so this tax does not hit the poor unfairly.
  
• Make gasoline taxes a percentage of the price of gasoline, instead of being fixed. This allows the transportation budget to stay constant.
• Establish prizes for solar and wind efficiencies.
• Use federal financing to create an interstate DC Power Grid.
• Allow use of oil from oil sands in Canada.
• Establish higher mileage requirements for cars and trucks.
• Establish a plan to wean the US off of imported oil.
• Increase standards for building efficiencies.
  
• Establish tax credits that energy efficiency, unfortunately many businesses unless there is a one year payoff will not do the investment. I admire WalMart's quote, we are not green, it just makes business sense.
• Require solar thermal water heaters on all new houses where it makes sense (South West of the US for example).
  

On subsidizing the solar, wind, and other industries it depends on the cost. There is a learning curve that with increased production, there is a decrease in production costs. I believe every time there is a doubling, costs come down 10%. The issue is how to do this to limit the negative economic impact. And has the previous alternate energy taxes made faster a reduction in solar costs? Germany's huge demand on solar actually seems to have increased the cost of solar cells on a short term basis, especially the cost of silicon. Companies do need have a secure environment in order to do investments, or have a high rate of return. With the price of oil and natural gas being so unstable, this is an issue for investments. What is important is to have stable funding for R&D, instead of every time the price of oil goes up, R&D into alternatives goes up, and when the price of oil goes down R&D crashes. Just think where we would be if the R&D started under President Carter had been continued till today.

Past Related Posts:

• What If - Carter's Energy Policy
• Oil Production, Demand, Technology, and Prices
• Al Gore's Energy Plan
• Solar in the News

Calif Energy Plan

California's Tighter Green-Energy Plan Advances - Goal is to get 1/3rd of CA energy from renewable. Electricity would go up 30% (estimate) to pay for this.

And something for the US to keep in mind - Germany, Korea eclipse California in solar

Interesting comment - Kateley described the near-term scenario for California's solar companies by showing a picture of someone parachuting into a pond surrounded by alligators "This is what the market in California looks like today—very risky," she said.

Tesla Motors

San Jose officials say Tesla auto plant would bring more than 1,000 jobs - surprises me locating in such a high rent area with an auto plant. But I guess that's part of the brand. Most of the new fabs are being built in lower cost areas because the bay area has become so expensive. Nummi (joint venture of Toyota and GM) is still in Fremont, but California has lost all the other car manufacturer plants. Some day I am going to take a tour of Nummi! The Toyota quality/production system fascinates me.

Paper and School Spirit

I went to my daughter's high school today, and it was amazing the amount of paper that was being used for posters for school spirit and such. I wonder if it's going go be recycled, or if even the idea of being environmental has been thought of. I am sure they face the same team year after year, so every year they make new paper banners? Any thoughts of recycling? Just some random thoughts.

A race to use less gas in the long haul

A race to use less gas in the long haul from the LA Time. Great article to read!

• 1992 model year, car buyers had the choice of 33 cars that had a combined city and highway EPA rating of at least 30 miles per gallon. For the current model year, there are 12.
• General Motors Corp. currently doesn't have any cars that top 30 mpg.
• Cars today are more powerful being the priority, with lower gas mileage.
  

Solar Up or Down?

Solar Shares Collapsing; Where’s The Bottom? from Barrons,

or

a Press Release Examine the Global and China Solar Polysilicon Industry 2008 ... MarketWatch - 2 hours ago The rising price of oil is pushing the solar energy industry towards new highs. People are choosing fuel ethanol, solar water heaters and solar batteries.

My guess, the drop in the price of oil has made Solar less interesting, and there is a feeling there will be further drops in the price of oil. As well as the lack of action by the US congress on an renewable tax credit, stronger dollar, and high poly silicon prices.

Oil Prices - What caused the fall?

Saudi's per this article Green Ink: Oil Caught Between Ike and OPEC increased production, combined with lowering of demand caused the prices to fall. No mention of speculators.

It's interesting who wants to keep oil prices high, and how the Saudi's are saying the price to extract oil tars is the new bottom for oil pricing - $65 per barrel.

California anti sprawl legislation

LED's and Prius in Denver at Cedia

When I was out getting lunch at the 16th street Mall, I saw a Prius taxi. This was after getting honked at by a regular taxi.

And in the show there was a booth selling LED's and I had a nice talk with the person. They new the practical side, but not the bigger picture. It's interested they are doing RGB LED's both in the doping as well as in the packaging, so you can get as many colors as you want. And with the power supply, you can put it 100 ft away using 10 AWG wire at 10Volts.

At a place selling power protection, the guy had no idea what he was selling. I spent 10 years in the UPS industry. I stopped by APC and they had a smart power strip, that when the main power plug was not drawing power it shut down the other plugs to save power. Neat idea so that printer is not on when the computer is off.

Denver Airport Car Rental

May be I am just from California, but it was a bit strange for me to see all these trucks just waiting to be rented. We wanted something with a trunk to hide our luggage since we were going directly to the tradeshow, and we had reserved a full size car because we had four people. We get there and most of the vehicles are trucks. We finally end up with a PT Cruiser that is somehow considered a full size car.

DALI, Cedia, and Standards

I stopped by a Lighting booth for a mfg, I won't write their name to they avoid the embarassment. I asked about Dali, and they said it was used on some commercial equipment, and it was overkill for consumer stuff. And the person I spoke with had no idea about the lighting market in Europe.

First reaction - wow! Future Road Kill...

1. The lighting industry in the US is still into their proprietary methods, instead of open standards.
2. Silicon to do Dali is cheap! The excuse on cost is just that.
3. The company is just throwing away a longer term opportunity for home automation.
4. When Apple finally gets a real home controller (music, video, lights) the companies that are not ready for that, like the one I spoke with, will be roadkill.
5. I hope Apple does this soon! It's still a major challenge to create a smart house.

Lead in Artificial Turf

Jerry Brown, who I still have a wonderful coffee cup from his previous time as Governor, Brown is Green, has a suite against 3 artificial turn companies for having lead in their grass. And what is very worrisome is many schools are adding this. And as the grass gets older more lead dust comes out, and it's easy to get into the mouth. Lead is not good...

Turf war: California sues artificial-grass makers over lead content from the LA Times.

Gas Prices

Oil was up to $147, call it $150, t0 $110, 25% decrease. Gas was up to $4.11, but now is only down to $3.68, a 11% decrease. So assuming the price of gas tracks 100% to gas (yes, I know about the taxes), gas should drop to $3.08. Figures per a NY Times article on Despite Oil Prices, Little Relief for Consumers. Auto Club I believe thought if the price of gas got below $3 a gallon, there would be an increase in driving back to normal levels.

Green - who actually acts green?

Hassles, negative feedback affect green actions from the San Jose Mercury News.

Great Quote:

"people not defining themselves as green doing green things, and others that said they were green and drove SUVs and had big houses," she said.

This is also so true in the "Green" industry. I like Walmart's comment where they are not being green for the sake of being green, but because it makes economical sense "we are not green".

My opinion, it's called making everything more efficient which is common sense, which is unfortunately not that common.