LED Article

A good deal of research went into this article from Forbes - The LED Illumination Revolution. Good history of lighting and talks about the quality of light. References haitz law which I did not know about. Each decade, LED prices have fallen by a factor of 10 while performance has grown by a factor of 20. Basically Moores Law for LED's.

So this means in 10 years, LED bulbs that sell for $14 should be $1.40 which is competive with CFL's and not that much more than incandescents.

Solar Advance - $100K Funding

It's nice to know there is still room for the little guy and that $100,000 in funding may make a difference. Bloo Solar claims that with it's new technology (if they get it to market) it will reduce the cost of solar so it's competitive. Currently production solar cells are only at 20% efficiency, and 40% in the lab. Bloo Solar is doing more of a 3 dimensional approach and uses thin film solar. The aim is to reduce the cost of manufacturing and increase the efficiency.

LED for Lighting

I did not realize there was a separate magazine for the LED Industry and a trade show! LED's have been a part of electronics for a long time. The small LED (Light Emitting Diode) was used as a small light. Then it became parts of displays, cell phones, then bigger lights as the power improved and the cost went down. The market size currently is $4.6 billion and growing about 11% per year, but growth has been as low as 6% in 2005 and 2006. LED's are great for applications that need low power (cell phones).

First Solar

I read a short article/profile on First Solar in the Wall Street Journal - Best 1-Year Performer: First Solar. Stock price has gone from $20 since their Nov. 2006 IPO to now $219. And the Walton family (WalMart) has been funding it since the beginning. The technology they are using is different than the normal silicon (in short supply) that most solar companies are using, it's cadmium tellurium. Trade off is lower efficiency, but it's available. CIGs (copper indium gallium selenide) is another material for solar that may reduce cost and is what is being called nano, since it can be sprayed on.

Green PC

How to make a Green PC from Ars Tecnica Translation - how to make one that does not use a lot of power. The issue of how the parts are made and what environmental impact and are they made for recyling manufactures are not up to yet . Thanks to Instapundit for the tip.

Green Building Standards

Washington Post Article - Saving the Earth Inside the Office
Discovery Turns Its Spotlight Inward

Good general overview, but does not go into some of the issues with green buildings and how the standards are still evolving.

Trees and Solar

I actually see this problem as a sign of progress! Your neighbor's trees vs. your solar panels occured in Sunnyvale (in the middle of Silicon Valley). The original article from Associated Press.

Key Points:

1. Both parties are environmentalists.
2. $1000 a day fines
3. California Law on how much sunshine a property must get (or else cut down the tree).

Ocean Challenges

Two articles that about the challenges facing Oceans.

Fishing our oceans to death from my local paper, and Sour Times - The sea is becoming more acidic. That is not good news if you live in it from The Economist.

What is not mentioned usually in articles about overfishing, is how much more fish there used to be in the Oceans. Using historically data, it makes the overfishing debate even more worrisome.

Solar Cost

Current solar technology "a loser" per a UC Berkeley Researcher. The claim being the amount of power produced over the life time of the Solar Cell does not equal the cost of energy it's replacing.

Solar industry does not agree with his analysis in his 38 page report.

Currently I have to agree with his analysis. On a strict cost basis, Solar does not make sense yet. But, my opinion the rebates and such are building an industry that will be cost effective in the future.

Trends that will make Solar more cost effective:
1. Increased efficiency due to economies of scale (every time you double production, costs are usually reduced 10%).
2. Increased conversion efficiency
3. Reduction in cost due to new technologies (thin film, nano technology, etc)
4. Increased cost of energy from natural gas, oil, etc
5. Ccost of peak power (that is currently not billed)
6. Cost of increases to electricity infrastructure due to increases in population
7. Solar PV Costs have been decreasing 7.3% per year.
8. Increased competition in the solar business.

Largest Solar Plant

From Wired Magazine's Blog: New Plant Could Drop Cost of Solar Power to 1.5x US Average

The comments interested me more than the actual posting.

Key Points from the comments:

1. Most electricity from solar is generated not by photovoltiacs, but by solar/thermal.
2. Efficiency for Solar?Thermal is around 60%. Photovoltiacs in the lab is 40%, and 18% with what's in production.
3. An Arizona house uses twice as much electricity as one in Denmark. My guess on reasons is size of house and air conditioning.

Texas Windpower

NY Times article - Move Over, Oil, There’s Money in Texas Wind

Key Points:

• Texas now has more windpower than California
• 3% of Texas energy is generated from the wind. 1% of US.
• Denmark generates 20% of it's power from wind.
• US Wind Capacity grew 45% last year.
• US is the 2nd largest producer of windpower, Germany is first in money invested.
• Foreign companies own 2/3rd of the wind projects under construction in Texas.

Online Seafood Mercury Calculator

Got Mercury? And even allows you to put in different types (more than 50) of fish to see how much Mercury is in them. The calculator shows if you exceed the limit or not. In California, due to Proposition 65 we have plenty of mercury warnings. Other states don't require warnings for mercury in seafood.

If you enter 16 oz of canned tuna (albacore), you are at 240% of the recommended level for Mercury.

Mercury - What's the Danger

Mercury is in Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFL's), Smoke from coal burning plants, Fish, Whale Meat, and Dolphin Meat. The NY Times has an article about how high levels in Mercury in Whale and Dolphin Meat has decreased interest in eating that meat in Japan, where protests had no effect.

CFL Mercury
Some manufacturers of CFL's are decreasing the amount of mercury used in them. CFl's are great from an energy conservation point, since they use up to 75% less light, than a regular light bulb. An Urban Legend's page on CFL's (interesting to read). A good idea is have a deposit to you get money for turning the CFL for recycling, instead of dumping it in the trash. Recycling CFL's takes time, and it's easier for most people to throw it away (even if that's illegal in many states). The amount of Mercury used in a CFL is small, about 100 times smaller than was used in Mercury Thermometers (now banned).

Mercury Problems:
The worst accident of mercury poisoning was in Japan. The Mad Hatter in Alice In Wonderland had the symptoms of Mercury poisoning. May types of fish have higher levels of Mercury in them.

Broken Fluorescents - How to Clean it up?
If you do break up a CFL, don't vacuum it (this just speads the dust). How to Clean up a broken fluorescent bulb per the EPALeave the room and air it out for 15 minutes. Using plastic gloves, then scoop up the broken material and put in a sealed plastic bag. Use a wet cloth to pick up any dust. I am not sure what process they used to clean up after using fluorescent tubes as light sabers in the Forty Year Old Virgin.

Solar Cost

Good post on Solar and doing the analysis on cost - And the comments are even better!

Lots of debate about how cost efficient Solar is, what the payback period is, maintenance, subsidiaries, and will the amount of energy produced equal the amount of energy needed to produce the solar cell in the first place.

The majority view seems to wait and within 5-7 years you will see major changes. LED lights will come down in price, plug-in hybrid, solar efficiency will increase, and the cost for solar will decrease. Nano is mentioned in the area of cost savings.

Solar Water Heater Calculator

From the State of Texas - Solar Water Heater Calculator

Nice tool! Assumes cost with installation is $2K.

Sea Urchins in Los Angeles

LA Times Story - In deep with the sea urchins

Summary:

• Not many people in Los Angeles still fishing Sea Urchins
• Market is being hurt by cheap imports
  
• Local stocks are depleted for Sea Urchins
  

Coral Issue

Interesting... Corals May Get Help Adapting to Warmer Waters Basically transplant Algae that can stand higher temperatures to coral that are happening in the world's oceans.

Silicon Impact on Solar Prices

EE Times article - Silicon wafer vendors see new dynamics

Key Points:

1. Solar has been getting the lower quality cast offs.
2. Solar demand has increased enough where it is competing with semiconductors for Silicon.
3. Silicon is only 5% of the cost of a semiconductor chip and 50% of the cost of Solar Cells for the photovoltaic industry.

So the idea of thin film that requires less silicon makes sense

Nuclear Waste Update

NY Times article As Nuclear Waste Languishes, Expense to U.S. Rises

Nuclear does not cause green house gases (which is good), but the problems of disposal and terrorist incidents are challenges. Not to mention the threat of nuclear war with nuclear proliferation. An atomic war would do major damage to the environment, especially since it won't be in low population areas (middle of nowhere) as the 2000 Atomic Testings that were done above ground.

Many countries are expanding their nuclear development (like China). France has a huge nuclear program and gets 75% of it's electricity from nuclear. US gets 20% of it's electricity from nuclear. New technology, such as Pebble Bed Reactors, should reduce the potential for accidents.

Poison used for Fishing

NY Times article about people using Poison for Fishing In Remote Valley, a Grim Redefinition of ‘Fishing’. Which is destroying the habitat which reduces the number of fish. Similar problems with tropical fish that are used for aquariums, that is destroying coral reefs. This has killed most of the coral reefs in the Philippines.

My guess on the major reason that is causing this is poverty. The minimum wage in the Philippines per day is 140 to 280 Pesos per day. Or $3.44 to $6.88 per day. Converter for Pesos to Dollars.

Solar in the News

NY Times article Silicon Valley Starts to Turn Its Face to the Sun

Key Points

• Biggest market Silicon Valley has looked into per T.J. Rodgers
  
• Lots of pipe dreams over the years in Solar per one quote.
• Consumer behavior may be hard to change to accept Solar
• Lots of new ideas for Solar.
• Pipeline for innovation in Solar is short term focused, so innovation may go dry in 10 years.
• Fear of another Solar Bubble.
  

Analysis:
The Energy Crises where energy costs sky rocketed due to the Oil Embargo in 1973 and 1979 Iran Crises. After Jimmy Carter was President, the solar industry crashed when energy became cheap again reducing the investment in Solar. The cost of solar has been continually coming down each year, and now added to the high cost of energy is the threat of global warming. With the increased wealth of the world (India and China), more and more energy will be used. The amount of excess oil production available has decreased, so the price of energy will probably continual to be high (a deep recession would change this). The funding in Solar is helping innovation and the question is how fast will the price drop. Demand has been increasing, and for some recent years was faster than production was expanded.

Human Impact on Oceans

The Register has a Map of the Human Impact on Oceans. 40% of the Ocean has been heavily impacted. The highest areas are on the coast. An example of this in Los Angeles is the warning in many areas not to eat certain types of fish due to toxins.

Green Moms - NY Times

For ‘EcoMoms,’ Saving Earth Begins at Home - New York Times eco-perfectionism was mentioned. An essay/article from the Wall Street Journal had a good point, that the best is the enemy of good. I am curious if Ecomom's is going to be a significant movement in the future.

Solar Grows despite slowdown

ABC article - Silicon Insider: Solar Companies Glow Despite Economic Slump Notes many of the items I blogged about in Solar Energy Growth including Moores Law. Currently there is huge demand, and still not enough supply. Applied Materials is touting growth in their solar equipment making area, while their chip semiconductor equipment orders are down.

The next area which needs work on is reducing the cost of installation. Site which has solar cost information updated monthly that I need to spend more time looking at. Installation cost of a unit includes the solar cells/module, an inverter (takes the DC outputted by the cells and creates AC out), batteries (may not be needed if you are connected to the grid, and batteries do go bad after 3-5 years usually), and the cost of installation.

Dead Ocean - Worrisome

LA Times article - Dead zones off Oregon and Washington likely tied to global warming, study says

The article also mentions that "A massive dead zone off Louisiana is created each spring by a slurry of nutrient-rich farm runoff and sewage that flows out the Mississippi River, causing algae to bloom riotously, die and drift to the bottom to decompose. Bacteria then take over. In the process of breaking down the plant matter, they suck the oxygen out of the seawater, making it unable to support most forms of sea life". The one in Oregon is just caused by changes to the atmosphere.

The dumping of sewage in the Ocean is a waste of resources, but there is so much other toxic junk mixed in with sewage it can't be safely used for much of anything. It's amazing the amount of toxic chemicals used in a house. Animated site that shows some sources of toxics. The problem is figuring out what is toxic, verses what is not.

Carbon Tax

WSJ Blog Entry that does not see a carbon tax happening. I agree that if it starts hitting consumers directly on the price of gasoline and electricity, there would be a new set of politicians elected. And since politicians understand that, I don't see it as politically feasible unless there is a huge effort to use the bully pulpit of the Presidency to explain how this is being done for national security reasons and the money will be used for alternative energy. There would be a lot of risk for taking this approach. On using global warming as a reason to push a carbon tax through, the two issues I see as blocking it are China (which will become the largest carbon emitter in 2009, so the question will be why ruin our economy when other countries don't need to) and some people not believing in Global Warming.

With all three major Presidential candidates believing in Global Warming, there will be some action in 2009

Solar Cooking - Prevent Deforestation?

Last night on the local NPR radio station, KPCC I heard a story about the Jewish World Watch that is funding solar cookers for refugee camps in Darfur. The prevents problems by reducing trips outside the camps, usually for firewood for cooking, by 95%. Girl Scouts gives a merit badge for Solar Cooking. Site with more information on Solar Cooking.

Unfortunately, solar cooking is not as convenient as other methods and has a low adoption rate in most places. Tibet is an exception, with half of solar cookers there. Good article on the issues of solar cooking implementation world wide.

Venture Capital Still Likes Solar

From the WSJ Venture Capital Still Likes Solar.

There are a couple of different strategies to lower solar cost.

1. Increasing the efficiency of the solar cells.
2. Reducing the cost of solar cells. Using less silicon or a different material.
3. Concentrating the sun light on the solar cells as a way to increase the overall system efficiency.

Infinia Corp. is going the concentration route with what I would call a Heat Pump, but they are calling a Stirling generators. Basically using solar energy to heat up a liquid/gas, that then drives a piston that can drive a generator. I prefer Photoelectric due to less moving parts on a theoretical basis due to less moving parts, but if it works, why not!

Fusion - May be sooner than thought

Fusion has been the great hope for energy that was just around the corner. An article about a VC investing in Fusion saying it may come sooner than thought. Fusion Power in the Next Five Years!? Fusion does not have all the radioactive issues that Fission does.

The problem is Fusion has always been 5 years away, for a long time. Fission (regular nuclear power) is getting more attention since you don't have green house issues. The challenge is where do you store all the Nuclear waste that will stay radioactive for a couple of thousand years. Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository in Nevada has been in limbo for a while.

MHD

The method of generative electricity is still heat, that generates steam to turn turbines for generating electricity. Magnetohydrodynamics seems like such a better process, but I have not heard anything about it for years. I worked for a firm in college that was doing experiments with Magnetohydrodynamics , till the Department of Energy stopped funding. Basically Magnetohydrodynamics is a plasma that electricity can be pulled from directly. For all a Magnetohydrodynamic generater is doing is disrupting a magnetic field through a plasma that results in Electricity. There was some experimentation with burning coal at high temperatures for the plasma, but that seems to have stopped in the US. Nice history I just found of MHD

Paperless Office - New Scanners Helping

When I worked in Silicon Valley almost 10 years ago, a co-worker, Tim (brilliant guy), scanned everything at home. Same reasoning as this article from the NY Times, Pushing Paper Out The Door, mentions - as an easier way to keep track of things. When I looked into it at the time, the speed of scanners was a big issue. Still is, but it seems to be getting better. I have noticed that for scanning images the speed is much better (I use a CanoScan 8600F), but there can be driver problems with some programs (PhotoShop). It's nice to read that OCR has improved dramatically as has the ability to use a paper feed on scanners. Last time I looked at scanners I did not see a low cost paper feed, especially one that can deal with different size papers. Using a desktop search tool as a way to find previously written information is great! The problem I have seen is these tools can result is a slower PC.

I see this eventually have a huge impact on the amount of paper used. The problem with a paperless office is paper is easy to use, faster to read than E-Mails, and easily transportable. It also has no boot time and is easily edited. If you have an image on a computer, to add text is a bit inconvenient. And doing searches on images is still a challenge, as well as categorizing them. A filing cabinet is an amazing piece of organizational hardware, that currently is still not as easy to replicate on the PC. It is getting closer which I look forward to.

Previous Related Post:
Green Status of US Companies

Green Status of US Companies

Mercury News article on Green Grades for companies. There is no unified standard for companies going green. I would go further and ask where is the incentive for going green for a company? Lots of companies claim to be green, but how green are they really? How big a priority is this for a company? My guess is most companies do the minimum so they can claim Green Status, and continue business as usual. Paper use is increasing per the report - so much for the paperless office that was promised with computers. If a company goes zero waste, that is impressive.

Green buildings are fascinating, but from what I have read this area is still developing and having a few growing pains along the way.

China's E-Waste Headache

Mercury News continues their excellent coverage of China's imported E-Waste nightmare. The photo's from Ban's Web Site are eye opening.



Why?

It is ten times cheaper to export e-waste than to dispose of it at home -
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Cost. To save cost, it's legally exported to Hong Kong, then somehow it gets into China where it is unsafely worked on and anything of value is extracted. Open air acid baths, etc. Lead from the Electronics for example then turns up in Jewelry, often for kids. Why, because it's cheap. And on the somehow the eWaste gets into China, bribery... And why are not safer, more expensive methods used widely? Cost.

How?
You may ask, how does China allow this to continue? China's Central Environmental Agency has little power, the local one is controlled by the local government that does what they feel is best for their personal power (money talks), and the environmental issues are not widely reported inside China. I don't believe you are going to see a electronic recycling version of The Jungle by Upton Sinclair published soon in China. At least the activity is now illegal. It is troubling that reporters were detained 6 hours by the local police.

What?
What of the people's health? Contamination from mercury, lead, fluorine, barium, chromium, and cobalt continues. Lead causes brain damage, mercury causes central nervous system issues (think of the mad hatter, when mercury was used to make felt hats), and other metals/chemicals cause kidney and other health issues.

Used Computer Value

The size/weight of computers has been shrinking. The amount of precious metals (gold) has also been reduced. With the relentless cost reductions that allow a PC to be sold for $349 from Dell and with computers doubling in capacity every two years for the same price, how much is that 5 year old computer worth? Not much.

Ask, who would buy a 5 year old computer when they can get a new one for a little bit more? With the computer size weighing less and less, the amount of scrap value for a PC has been going down. PII Desktop per this article is worth under $50. And how many people want to pay shipping for a used computer, that is more than the computer is worth?

So it sits in a closet, gets donated, or hopefully recycled as it's E-Waste/eWaste. Hopefully, the hard drive in there has been scrubbed so no personal data is passed on. A ball pin hammer is a great way of permanently erasing a hard drive, but it reduces the value of the computer. If an old computer is only worth $50, who can afford to work on it in the US? For business, nobody since just to look at a computer with overhead costs $50. Much less removing a hard drive, wiping it, and then reinstalling a new OS.

Electronic Recycling

Electronics and Computer recycling has a lot of costs, but most people don't want to pay. So what is a business to do? They take shortcuts. A web site that most recycling don't want you to know about BAN. Basel Action Network. The problem is electronics is not very healthy stuff. It is made with a lot of chemicals, metals, and plastics that pose health problems. Not to mention how the disassembly is done.

May be a electronics recycler takes apart the product here. Let's say a computer. The monitor is taken apart, glass crushed. Where is the glass being sent to? Who is paying for the labor to disassemble the computer? It's worth a few cents as raw components, but has some value if it's re-used. If re-used, who is going to pay for the data wiping for the few dollars a computer is worth? And if taken apart, who is the Printed Circuit Boards being sent to? How far downstream can this be monitored? What does it actually mean when a company has ISO 14001?

From what I can see of the industry, there is a huge amount of competition and a lot of interest in the industry. The challenge is actually recycling in an environmentally friendly way. Unfortunately as a consumer, it's hard to tell who is actually doing a environmentally friendly way. And since most people expect it be done for free, where is the incentive to do it right?

Port Pollution Challenge

Los Angeles Port, near where I live, has a pollution problem. Because of this the areas right next to the port are not the most desirable to eat, even though they are right on the ocean. The problem is caused by trucks for moving the good from ships and the ships themselves. The ships use a lower grade of fuel that is lower cost, called bunker fuel, but pollutes more. People living in the area have a 100 times greater cancer rate than others in California.

Different projects are underway to reduce the pollution in Los Angeles:

1. Require newer trucks that are less polluting for moving cargo.
2. Have docked ships use shore electricity when docked, instead of using their diesel generators.
3. Increase the use of trains for moving goods out of the port. The Alameda corridor is part of this effort.

Much of the effort is voluntary and is going slow. Due to this there may be some lawsuits filed if things don't pick up. The sad thing is official data showing that each $1 invested in cleaning or preventing pollution returns between $3 and $8 in avoided costs for healthcare and lost workdays. A challenge is the port does not see this cost, so they don't have an incentive to clean up the pollution. Port usage and pollution are increasing, and as pollution has been reduced in other areas the ports are becoming a larger source of pollution. The port of Los Angeles for example, is the largest source of pollution in the Los Angeles area. The state of California, per this PBS report, believes 1200 people die each year due to pollution from the port. asthma rates are twice the national average.

Bio Fuels - Increasing Global Warming?

Journal Science just released an article with a study that claims Bio Fuels may actually increase Global Warming, compared to regular fuels. What the study looked at was the whole picture. For example if Corn in the US is made into Ethanol, where is the replacement crop going to come from? It seems that new land will be developed for crops which increases Global Warming due to more green house gases released. The hope is non-food, such as green waste can be used for Bio Fuels in the future at an economic cost.

Of course, if green waste is used I am not sure what this will do for the subsidiaries in the US for Corn Ethanol. Another part of using green waste, is much of it is contaminated with pesticides and fertilizers (lawn care products), which also takes care of the disposal issue of green waste .

China's Environment

From the Economist, Don't drink the water and don't breathe the air - And don't expect the government's environmental watchdog to do much about it.

Key Points:

1. Environmental agency in China is underfunded and it's competitors for agriculture and industry are much more powerful. So wonderful sounding regulations are enacted (sounds great!), but actual implementation is poor.
2. Local environmental agencies are usually focusing on the same goals of local governments (grow the economy at any cost).
3. Environmental damage in 2004 may have lowered GDP by 3.05%.
   

So why does this matter outside of China? Because many goods in China are exported to the US, and poorly implemented regulations can lead to issues such as food safety/contamination. Pollution also has a habit of ignoring national borders, not to mention Global Warming. Japan's Prime Minister has China to reduce pollution due to fear in Japan that Acid Rain is being caused by Chinese pollution.

Solar Energy Growth

NY Times article - A Green Energy Industry Takes Root in California Currently solar is 3 to 5 times more expensive that solar, but the amount of solar being installed is growing. The article writes about the huge amount of Venture Capital funding that is betting on new technology to lower the cost of solar. The price of solar production has been impacted by a shortage in silicon (traditional method of making solar cells). The solar industry has been growing by 30% per year. The prices for solar power has become competitive enough in Japan, where the government has removed the subsidy they have. Applied Materials has invested in developing equipment for making solar cells (Applied Materials is the company for chip equipment).

Two factors that are a major influence on the price of solar are Moores Law (number of transistors doubles every two years, which means prices go down fast for electronics) and efficiency gained through increases in production. The more you produce, the better you get at it which reduces cost.

Price Controls impact on Energy

Many countries artificially keep the price of oil low to insure domestic stability. Examples include China, Pakistan, Arabian Gulf Countries, and more. So what does this do to the world economy and environment?

It reduces the incentive to be efficient with energy, because of low prices. This increases demand and increases prices of oil. What I have seen is lower efficiency operations are also more polluting. For governments, this also increases deficits which reduce funding for other areas. Price controls can also reduce investment for developing future oil supplies. Why would it reduce investment? Because somebody needs to pay the difference in cost between retail and wholesale and what is the incentive to find new supplies with limited profits? Many US oil fields due to age have higher production costs, and when oil prices are low they are not economical. With price controls, what usually happens is black market activities allow access at higher prices, where at the fixed state prices, there are shortages. Vietnam and Iran have smuggling issues, since neighboring countries higher prices lead to highly profitable smuggling of subsidized oil and/or refined products. Often the state set prices cause producers to take a loss (and most companies are not willing to take losses).

In the US, the relatively low prices for oil has led to low demand, until recently, of smaller cars. SUV's and other fuel guzzling vehicles have ruled the road. In Europe, high gas prices has led to more fuel efficient vehicles. Hybrid sales in Europe don't seem to have a high market penetration, which I don't understand yet.

Bird Flu - Globalization Impact

Bird Flu is a disease that just keeps on popping up. And with the huge warnings about a pandemic four years ago, fatigue is setting in. As in the fairy tale, the boy who cried wolf, there is a danger of ignoring the real danger. Globalization because now, diseases can travel so quickly. The spread of bird fluhas been blamed on the migration of wild birds, but there seems to be a bit of smuggling that has helped it spread. And when farmers are not compensated enough for sick birds, smuggling will happen. Not to mention bribery, which may have some impact on the success of culling birds to stop the spread.

Food - Long Haul vs. Short Haul

Interesting article from the UK Times - Why long-haul food may be greener than local food with low air-miles -Shoppers choosing local over long-haul may not be as green as they think, finds our correspondent as he unravels the science

Key Points:

• Food may be better grown large scale, but further away.
• Food grown in some regions may require less energy (sunny area verses heated local greenhouse
• Buying locally may not be the best for the environment.
• LCA - “life cycle assessment” (LCA) of food products to show the total environmental impact of produce if everybody starts using this would be helpful.
• As much of 1/3rd of food bought in the UK is not eaten.
• Packaging (excessive) is a problem.
• Anything transported by air (vs road/boat) probably has an excessive foot print.

This does get confusing on what is the best enviromentally. I remember Peter Drucker saying just tell him what numbers you wanted as an accountant, and he could achieve that. He was explaining how Enron was nothing new, how historically many companies had cooked the books. Same thing with statistics, they can be used to show whatever you want, depending on what data you include. I remember Doonsbury analyzing which was best for the environment for diapers.

Green Wash - False Environmental Advertising Claims

Wall Street Journal article about Green Washing. False 'Green' Ads Draw Global Scrutiny
Watchdogs' Rulings Bring Bad Publicity, But Many Lack Bite
By TOM WRIGHTJanuary 30, 2008; Page B4

Keypoints:

• Advertisements may contain false claims about the environment.
• Checking those claims takes time
• Some governments and NGO's check claims.
• Impact can be governments such as Norway banning an advertisement or bad publicity from NGO's.
• US FTC this month is starting to monitor for Green Wash.

My 2 Cents. I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! The amount of companies claiming to be Environmental at CES is another example of this.

Demand for Oil

Confusing article from Business Week The Oil Paradox - A worldwide slowdown won't end the oil price boom anytime soon. The article title and 90% of the article suggest that oil prices will stay high for a while. The reason is old fields being depleted, lack of exploration for new fields, and some governments deliberately restricting supply of oil to keep the price of oil high. Then at the end of the article, say last 10%, is something like a "But" statement, that is 100% opposite of the first part of the article. The argument here is a global downturn may decrease demand for oil and increased usage of alternate fuel may result in lower oil prices.

Thomas Friedman has argued that the higher oil price is actually helping the US by increasing the R&D into alternate fuels, and even if the price of oil falls the US should keep it artificially high to continue the development of alternate fuels.

My 2 cents.

Alternate fuels in the next 4-5 years besides getting huge tax subsidiaries for Ethanol, are not going to have much of an impact on oil prices. Price of food - yes. If the US started importing Ethanol from Brazil without tariffs, I would have a different answer, but I don't see this happening due to politics. Oil demand from China and India is increasing. Especially China that is having more and more cars as well as demand for diesel due to generators needed due to problems with their electricity producing infrastructure. China is building more nuclear and coal plants, but demand is still outstripping supply. And recently China went from being an exporter of coal to being an importer. Solar powers price is decreasing, but not fast enough to be truly competitive yet. Estimates are for peak utility costs by 2010 and bulk is a ways out. Fuel efficiency such as hybrid cars in the US won't substantially reduce usage of oil in the US in the next couple of years.

The current increase in oil prices is also due to a war premium being caused by Iraq and Iran, lack of investment in new oil fields, oil future trading, and increased demand by oil by China and India. Iran is not getting new equipment due to embargo's of technology that are impacting production. Saudi Arabia is not funding yet needed to replace their older fields and increase production yet. Oil producers are also increasing investment in local industry that is a heavy user of energy as a way to diversify their economy.

My guess on the price of oil? My guess, and it's a guess would be down in the near term as the US economy recovers from the deflating of the property bubble that has increased consumer spending.

Solar Water Heating

Solar Water Heating has a lot of potential and it's a shame the US is not further along. In Israil 90% houses use solar for water heating. Tax breaks during the 1973 Energy Crises increased the number of solar water heating in the US, but after these tax breaks expired in the 1980's, the US industry collapsed.

If you go to Scotty's Castle in Death Valley California you will see a solar installation for heating water. Now it seems strange, that a place built in the 1920's would use Solar. It turns out that Solar was very popular in California up to about 1947 with over 1/3rd of houses in Pasadena (home of the Rose Parade) using solar heating. In the 1920's the discovery of Natural Gas ended new installations of Solar Water Heaters in California. In the late 40's, electricity became cheaper and thus ended widespread use of Solar Water Heading in Florida, outside of pools. If you drive around houses built in the late 1970's, you will still see some solar water heaters.

My opinion is the US in areas that make sense should continue tax incentives and/or require new buildings to use Solar Water Heaters. Federal Solar Water Installationax incentives of $2000 maximum of up to 30% of an installation have lapsed. It's a great way to reduce use of Natural Gas.

A brief look at the Economics of installing a Solar Water Heater and how long the cost is amortized. Installation costs seem to be around $7500 and reduces the heating bill by 50-80%. So payback would be 8-10 years assuming yearly savings of $750.

Business Case for Environmentalism

Recyling and being environmentally friendly are areas of increased growth and awareness in the US. For my undergraduate I took a class in Environmental Engineering that just made sense. It's a shame that more common sense is not applied to the environment. Zero Waste to me makes sense because this reduces inefficiency. Toyota is going to a Zero Waste model and WalMart is reducing packaging. My opinion on why, besides the positive press, is economics. For Walmaret, by reducing packaging they can reduce the amount of shipments that is a great cost reduction.