Current solar technology "a loser" per a UC Berkeley Researcher. The claim being the amount of power produced over the life time of the Solar Cell does not equal the cost of energy it's replacing.
Solar industry does not agree with his analysis in his 38 page report.
Currently I have to agree with his analysis. On a strict cost basis, Solar does not make sense yet. But, my opinion the rebates and such are building an industry that will be cost effective in the future.
Trends that will make Solar more cost effective:
1. Increased efficiency due to economies of scale (every time you double production, costs are usually reduced 10%).
2. Increased conversion efficiency
3. Reduction in cost due to new technologies (thin film, nano technology, etc)
4. Increased cost of energy from natural gas, oil, etc
5. Ccost of peak power (that is currently not billed)
6. Cost of increases to electricity infrastructure due to increases in population
7. Solar PV Costs have been decreasing 7.3% per year.
8. Increased competition in the solar business.
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