A good deal of research went into this article from Forbes - The LED Illumination Revolution. Good history of lighting and talks about the quality of light. References haitz law which I did not know about. Each decade, LED prices have fallen by a factor of 10 while performance has grown by a factor of 20. Basically Moores Law for LED's.
So this means in 10 years, LED bulbs that sell for $14 should be $1.40 which is competive with CFL's and not that much more than incandescents.
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