Monday, August 11, 2008

Oil, Natural Gas, and Russia

I am surprised that Russia's reprisal/adventure in Georgia as not affected the price of Oil and Natural Gas from what I can see. Update Georgia conflict lifting oil price from 3-month low there seems to be some minimal impact.

Why would continued military operations by Russian in Georgia have an impact:
  • Conflict costs money from gas for the airplanes to $100,000 a throw missile to even bullets. The US is spending $12 Billion a month in Iraq. Where is Russia going to find the money for this? May be be reducing capital spending on oil fields...
  • Pipelines for Natural Gas all come from Russian to Europe. What is Europe's response to this conflict going to be? What impact will that have on Europe's future imports of natural gas from Russian. Currently they don't have a choice.
  • The pipeline through Georgia for Oil to Turkey may get more damaged.
  • Georgia may decide to do a nasty guerrilla war against Russian. This could get expensive for Russia.
  • This could kick off an arms race in the area, as ex-Soviet Republics that are anti-Russian beef up their arm purchases.
The big question is how much longer is Russia going to keep this up? If the goal is just to prove how strong they are, they will need to stop soon. If it's regime change, that would damage Western relations with Russian. If it's occupying Georgia till a friendly government is put in, non-democratic, that would even more so damage relations. And if the relations get damaged, what of Iran that Russia is supplying with arms and using their security council veto.

No comments: