Will the Solar Bubble burst in 2010? The argument per Lux Research Report being that enough silicon will finally be available plus competition from thin film technologies that will cause an oversupply of solar cells that outstrip demand hurting crystalline silicon PV. Lux Research does specialize in Nanotechnology (thin film) and makes their money by selling research reports (so they may favor thin film over other technologies, since these are their clients).
An interesting quote from the Wall Street Journal article that discusses the Lux paper:
“The sector will remain almost completely hostage” to subsidy regimes for the near future, Mr. Holman says. “We don’t see it becoming cost-competitive” with current technologies by 2012, he said.
The questions which I am not seeing addressed in what I have read of the report:
1. How much will demand increase for solar due to price drops worldwide? There are other markets outside the US that have significantly higher energy costs. Japan, Europe, etc. In Japan since the price of solar is near grid parity, the subsidy for solar has been removed.
2. How much is the estimated price drops for Solar? How will this impact the final install cost for a house for solar? What would be the payback period?
3. Why would Thin film increase their market share that much to 28% of the market from 17%? Thinfilm is just ramping up production and has the issue of lower efficiency requiring a higher cost of installation due to more panels needed. TJ Rogers has a few comment on thin film.
4. The requirements of US utilities to increase their use of renewable power. For example SCE is supposed to be 20% by 2010 and 33% by 2020. How does this impact the potential market for solar?
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